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Buffalo (12-5) at Jacksonville (13-4)
- When: Jan 11 2026, 1:00 PM
- Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- Where to watch: CBS
- Last Meeting: BUF 47-10, September 23rd, 2024
Buffalo vs Jacksonville Preview & Prediction
Spread: Jacksonville -1.5
Moneyline: Jacksonville (-120)
Total: 51.0
Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Breakdown
Jacksonville enters the postseason feeling like the most overlooked hot team in football, and they are absolutely enjoying it. The Jaguars have ripped off eight straight wins, lighting up scoreboards and stacking confidence along the way. This is not a fluky run either. Jacksonville has been decisive, physical, and explosive, especially on offense.
Playing at home matters here. The Jaguars have turned EverBank Stadium into a difficult place to visit, and the betting line reflects how much respect they are finally getting. Favored by 1.5, Jacksonville is being asked to do something simple but demanding, win one more game the same way they have been winning for weeks.
Trevor Lawrence is playing with control and swagger, spreading the ball, extending plays, and limiting mistakes. The Jaguars offense has found balance, mixing efficient passing with timely rushing that keeps defenses honest. What truly separates this team is its defense. Jacksonville has become elite against the run and thrives on generating pressure without blitzing heavily.
From a betting standpoint, Jacksonville checks multiple boxes. They are hot, at home, confident, and facing a team with a documented history of road playoff struggles. Motivation will not be an issue.
Buffalo Bills Betting Breakdown
Buffalo arrives with star power, experience, and expectations, even if they pretend otherwise. Josh Allen remains one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in football, capable of flipping games with a single drive. The Bills have leaned on his ability to rescue them late all season, and that reliance continues into January.
The concern for Buffalo is location. Road playoff games have not been kind to this group, and pressure has consistently caused issues. When Allen faces heavy heat, mistakes follow. Turnovers and sacks have defined their losses, which is exactly where Jacksonville wants to attack.
Buffalo also enters with uncertainty at kicker, which matters in a projected high scoring game. Small details become magnified in the postseason, especially when margins are thin.
As an underdog, Buffalo still carries danger. If Allen finds rhythm early and avoids forcing throws, the Bills can absolutely win. But their path requires near perfect execution in a hostile environment.
Betting Outlook and Prediction
Jacksonville is favored by 1.5 with the total sitting at 51.0. This suggests points, pace, and a competitive game. Jacksonville’s defensive matchup against Buffalo’s protection issues tips the scale.
Expect fireworks early, but Jacksonville’s pressure and home energy make the difference late.
Final Score: Jaguars 28, Bills 24
Lean: Jacksonville -1.5
Total: Over 51.0
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
