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Minnesota (27-14) at Houston (23-14)
- When: Jan 16 2026, 9:30 PM
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX, USA
- TV: ESPN
Minnesota vs Houston Preview & Prediction
Spread: Houston -4.5
Moneyline: Houston (-175)
Total: 221.5
Houston Rockets Betting Breakdown
Houston returns home looking to steady the ship after a rough stretch that has exposed some offensive issues. The Rockets recently saw their home winning streak snapped and have now dropped five of their last seven games, with shooting struggles becoming the main concern. Defense has kept them competitive most nights, but when shots are not falling, it puts pressure on everything else.
The Rockets were overwhelmed by physical play in their last outing and simply could not score efficiently. Poor three point shooting has been the recurring problem, making it difficult to separate from opponents even when Houston controls tempo defensively. That said, this is still a strong home team that prefers to dictate pace, slow games down, and win through effort.
Houston is favored by 4.5 points with the total sitting at 221.5. This matchup offers a chance to reset offensively against a Minnesota team coming off an emotional win. Expect Houston to lean on its core scorers and attempt to reestablish rhythm early.
Rockets Player Prop Pick: Alperen Sengun over 19.5 points
Sengun remains Houston’s most reliable interior scorer and should see steady touches against a Wolves lineup lacking size consistency.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Breakdown
Minnesota arrives in Houston with momentum after a surprising blowout win that came despite missing key contributors. The Timberwolves leaned on depth and energy, pulling strong performances from role players who stepped up when given extended minutes. That type of effort speaks to team chemistry, but it can be difficult to replicate on short rest against a physical opponent.
With Anthony Edwards sidelined and Rudy Gobert unavailable recently, Minnesota has relied on balanced scoring and pace. That approach worked in their previous game, but facing Houston’s defensive pressure is a different challenge. The Timberwolves will need to shoot efficiently and avoid turnovers to stay within striking distance.
Minnesota’s depth has been impressive, yet this matchup presents a tougher environment. Houston’s defensive mindset and home court advantage make this a spot where the Timberwolves could struggle to generate consistent offense.
Timberwolves Player Prop Pick: Julius Randle over 20.5 points
Randle has taken on a heavier scoring role and should see plenty of usage on the road. Minnesota will lean on his physicality and shot creation to keep pace offensively against Houston’s defense.
NBA Final Score & Expert Prediction
Houston is favored by 4.5 points, and this sets up as a bounce back spot after recent frustrations. Minnesota’s recent win was impressive, but the situational edge favors the Rockets at home. Expect Houston to tighten up defensively and do just enough offensively to pull away late.
The total of 221.5 leans slightly under given Houston’s preference for slower, physical games when things matter.
Final Score: Rockets 112, Timberwolves 106
Lean: Houston -4.5
Total: Under 221.5
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
