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New England (16-3) at Denver (15-3)
- When: Jan 25 2026, 3:00 PM
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- Where to watch: CBS
- Last Meeting: NE 26-23, December 24th, 2023
New England vs Denver Preview & Prediction
Spread: New England -4.0
Moneyline: New England (-220)
Total: 43.0
New England Patriots Betting Preview
New England enters the AFC Championship in a familiar position, favored on the road and comfortable with pressure. The Patriots have been flawless away from home all season, and their confidence comes from an offense that has thrived under structure and discipline. Drake Maye has taken a major leap this year, showing poise, explosiveness, and the ability to respond even when things break down.
While Maye’s postseason has been messy statistically, the results speak louder than the mistakes. Despite sacks and turnovers, New England has controlled games by responding quickly after adversity. That resilience matters in a championship setting, especially against a backup quarterback making the biggest start of his career.
Defensively, the Patriots are built to challenge inexperienced passers. They disguise coverages well, pressure without overcommitting, and rarely allow easy throws early in games. Against a quarterback they know well, preparation and anticipation should be strengths. From a betting standpoint, New England’s ability to travel, defend, and finish games makes them a logical favorite in this spot.
Denver Broncos Betting Preview
Denver’s season has been defined by resilience, and that storyline only grows stronger heading into this matchup. The Broncos lost their starting quarterback late, yet confidence inside the locker room has not wavered. Jarrett Stidham steps in with full trust from the coaching staff, and the game plan will likely lean on balance and protection.
The Broncos defense is the backbone of this team. They led the league in sacks and finally paired pressure with turnovers in their most recent playoff win. That unit can keep Denver competitive, especially if it controls early downs and limits explosive plays.
Offensively, Denver will likely emphasize the run game and quick reads to keep Stidham comfortable. Long possessions and field position will be critical. Playing at home helps, but falling behind early would force Denver into uncomfortable situations. From a wagering angle, the Broncos are dangerous as underdogs, but the margin for error is slim without their usual quarterback playmaking.
Prediction and Betting Outlook
This game shapes up as physical and controlled rather than explosive. Denver’s defense should keep things close early, but New England’s experience, quarterback edge, and ability to capitalize on mistakes give them the advantage as the game progresses. Expect a tight first half followed by New England gradually pulling ahead.
The spread favors the Patriots, while the total leans slightly under given the likelihood of conservative play and defensive pressure.
Final Score: Patriots 24, Broncos 17
Lean: New England -4.0
Total: Under 43.0
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
