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Miami (24-22) at Phoenix (27-18)
- When: Jan 25 2026, 8:00 PM
- Where: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: FDSSUN
Miami vs Phoenix Preview & Prediction
Spread: Phoenix -4.0
Moneyline: Phoenix (-170)
Total: 226.0
Phoenix Suns Betting Breakdown
Phoenix finally returns home after a long and uneven road stretch that ended on a frustrating note. The Suns showed flashes of strong basketball during the trip, but injuries once again reshaped the rotation at the worst possible time. Losing their top scorer just as the homestand begins forces Phoenix to adjust quickly.
At home, the Suns still play with pace and confidence, especially offensively. Ball movement and spacing will be emphasized with scoring redistributed across the lineup. The biggest concern is late game execution, which vanished in their most recent loss after an ankle injury changed everything. Phoenix struggled to create quality looks once pressure increased, something that cannot repeat against a physical Miami defense.
Defensively, Phoenix will need to be sharper on the glass. Allowing second chance points would neutralize their home court advantage. Still, the Suns tend to respond well after losses, and playing in a familiar environment should stabilize the offense even without a full roster.
From a betting perspective, Phoenix laying points at home makes sense, but the margin is thinner than the number suggests. Expect efficiency rather than explosiveness.
Suns Player Prop Pick: Grayson Allen over 16.5 points
Allen is likely to see expanded usage and shot volume with the starting lineup adjusting.
Miami Heat Betting Breakdown
Miami closes out its road trip with momentum after a dominant rebounding performance in its last game. The Heat have struggled to stack wins recently, but effort has not been the issue. When Miami commits to physical play and multiple effort possessions, they can control the tempo even without a full lineup.
Rebounding has become a major edge for this group. Extra possessions and interior presence have fueled strong offensive nights, especially when the perimeter shots are falling. Miami does not rely on pace. Instead, they wear teams down with discipline and patience.
The challenge here is consistency. Miami has not been able to sustain success for long stretches, especially away from home. Defensively, they will look to slow Phoenix early and force the Suns into contested jumpers. If Miami keeps this game close late, they have the experience to make it uncomfortable.
From a wagering standpoint, Miami catching points is appealing if they can control the boards again.
Heat Player Prop Pick: Bam Adebayo over 10.5 rebounds
Miami continues to emphasize crashing the glass, and Bam remains central to that approach.
NBA Final Score & Expert Prediction
This matchup profiles as competitive and physical. Phoenix should benefit from returning home and resetting after a tough loss, but Miami’s rebounding edge keeps this from being a runaway. Expect scoring runs from both sides with adjustments throughout.
The spread slightly favors Phoenix at home, while the total leans under if Miami successfully slows pace and limits transition opportunities.
Final Score: Suns 114, Heat 109
Lean: Phoenix -4.0
Total: uNDER 226.0
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
