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San Antonio (31-15) at Houston (28-16)
- When: Jan 28 2026, 9:30 PM
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX, USA
- TV: ESPN
San Antonio vs Houston Preview & Prediction
Spread: Houston -2.5
Moneyline: Houston (-140)
Total: 220.0
Houston Rockets
Houston is starting to look like a team that finally knows what it wants to be. The Rockets just showcased their best version yet of the Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun partnership, and when that two man action clicks, defenses are basically choosing how they want to lose.
Against Memphis, Houston flipped a double digit deficit by leaning hard into that pairing late. Durant punished help defense from the perimeter, while Sengun dominated the paint whenever he saw single coverage. Once the Rockets found that rhythm, the Grizzlies had no clean answers. That chemistry is still developing, but the ceiling is obvious and dangerous.
At home, Houston has been more comfortable dictating pace and closing games with purpose. When the Rockets simplify things and let their stars work together instead of forcing balance, the offense becomes efficient and tough to slow down. Against a Spurs team that has struggled late in games recently, that matters.
Rockets Player Prop Pick: Alperen Sengun over 18.5 points
San Antonio can be vulnerable inside, and Sengun thrives when defenses hesitate to double.
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is still winning more games than losing, but cracks are starting to show. The Spurs have had issues closing opponents out, letting solid leads slip away with sloppy execution and stalled offense late. That trend continued in their most recent loss, where a strong effort unraveled in the final minutes.
The Spurs remain young, talented, and explosive, but they sometimes rely too much on raw ability instead of discipline. When shots stop falling, the lack of consistent execution shows up quickly. On the road against a confident Houston team, those late game lapses can be costly.
That said, San Antonio is never short on scoring threats, and their pace keeps them competitive even when things get messy. If they clean up turnovers and stay aggressive attacking the rim, they can absolutely hang around.
Spurs Player Prop Pick: Victor Wembanyama over 10.5 rebounds
Houston forces volume shots, creating opportunities on the glass for Wembanyama to impact the game.
Prediction
This shapes up as a tight, high scoring matchup early, but Houston has the edge at home and the more reliable late game offense right now. The Rockets have shown they can close with structure, while the Spurs are still learning those lessons the hard way.
Final Score: Rockets 113, Spurs 108
Lean: Houston -2.5
Total: Over 220.0
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
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