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Dallas (19-29) at Houston (29-17)
- When: Jan 31 2026, 8:30 PM
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX, USA
- TV: ABC
Dallas vs Houston Preview & Prediction
Spread: Houston -11.0
Moneyline: Houston (-480)
Total: 224.0
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
Dallas arrives in Houston carrying momentum in spirit, if not in the win column. Rookie Cooper Flagg just delivered one of the loudest performances of the season, erupting for 49 points and 10 rebounds in a narrow 123-121 loss to Charlotte. That scoring outburst set a new Mavericks rookie record, surpassing the long standing mark of 42 points previously held by franchise icon Mark Aguirre.
Flagg was not just scoring for fun. He was everywhere. Attacking the rim, hitting tough shots, rebounding in traffic, and competing on both ends. He did make a costly late turnover and foul, but the bigger picture is clear. Dallas has found its cornerstone. Flagg is now averaging elite usage with growing responsibility, and his confidence level is sky high even as the team has dropped three straight games.
Despite recent losses, Dallas has been competitive. They play with pace, lean into Flagg’s shot creation, and are rarely blown out. That matters in a spot where they are catching double digits. Dallas has already won two of the first three meetings against Houston this season, and familiarity helps underdogs stay within striking distance.
Mavericks Player Prop Pick: Cooper Flagg over 19.5 points.
After a 49-point night, Dallas will continue to run offense through its rookie star.
Houston Rockets Betting Preview
Houston keeps winning games by sheer toughness and depth, even as the injury list grows. The Rockets picked up a 104-86 road win in Atlanta while missing Steven Adams, Tari Eason, and Dorian Finney-Smith. That trio normally provides size, defense, and energy, yet Houston still controlled the game with effort and physicality.
Clint Capela continues to shoulder extra responsibility in the frontcourt, finishing with 10 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks in the win. Josh Okogie stepped in admirably for Eason, posting a double double with 10 points and 10 rebounds, while Jae’Sean Tate brought intensity in limited minutes.
Houston’s identity remains defense first, grind second, and score when opportunities present themselves. At home, that formula usually leads to wins, especially against teams that rely heavily on one offensive engine. Still, with a shortened rotation, Houston has not been blowing teams out consistently.
Rockets Player Prop Pick: Alperen Sengun over 8.5 rebounds.
With Houston thin up front, Sengun’s activity on the glass remains critical.
Prediction
Houston is the better team right now and should take care of business at home. However, the number feels inflated given Dallas’ ability to score and Flagg’s current form. Expect the Rockets to control the game but struggle to fully separate late.
Dallas keeps it uncomfortable, Houston still gets the win.
Final Score: Rockets 118, Mavericks 110
Lean: Dallas +11.0
Total: Over 224.0
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
