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Duke (25-2) vs Notre Dame (12-15)
- When: Feb 24 2026, 7:00 PM
- Where: Purcell Pavilion, South Bend, IN, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(1) Duke vs Notre Dame Preview & Prediction
Spread: Duke -17.5
Moneyline: Duke (-3500)
Total: 140.0
You’ve got a heavyweight at the top of the board and a team just trying to stay afloat. On paper, this one screams mismatch. The market agrees, hanging Duke as a 17.5-point road favorite with a total of 140. Let’s break it down properly.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Breakdown
Duke walks into South Bend riding the momentum of its biggest win of the season, knocking off the nation’s top-ranked team on a neutral floor. That wasn’t smoke and mirrors. The Blue Devils controlled the interior, won the glass 41-28 and turned 13 offensive rebounds into 18 second-chance points. That’s grown-man basketball.
Even in a game where they coughed it up 11 times and missed five free throws, Duke still dictated the tempo inside. That’s a scary sign for opponents.
Statistically, this team checks every box bettors look for. Duke averages 39.6 rebounds per game, ranking among the nation’s best, and shoots a blistering 61.6 percent from inside the arc. They defend at an elite level too, allowing just 63.1 points per game. When you combine efficient offense with top-tier defense, you get margin. And margin matters when you’re laying big numbers.
Cameron Boozer is the engine. He leads the ACC with 22.6 points and 10.0 rebounds per game and continues to cash consistently in high-pressure spots. The supporting frontcourt of Patrick Ngongba II and Nikolas Khamenia adds length, physicality and rim protection. Against Michigan, that trio combined for 35 points and 25 rebounds. That’s domination in the paint.
From a betting perspective, Duke’s profile supports laying chalk against inferior competition. They rebound, defend and convert high-percentage looks. That travels.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Breakdown
Notre Dame is in survival mode. The Irish have dropped 11 of their last 13 games and are clinging to ACC Tournament hopes. Offensively, they’ve become overly dependent on perimeter shooting, and when that dries up, so does their scoring.
In their recent loss to Pittsburgh, they went 9 of 38 from three-point range. That’s 23.7 percent. Volume without efficiency is a dangerous combo, especially against a defense like Duke’s.
The injury situation doesn’t help. Markus Burton remains sidelined with a broken ankle, and Jalen Haralson, who averages 15.5 points per game, has been dealing with a sprained ankle. That strips Notre Dame of consistent shot creation and forces role players into uncomfortable spots.
Defensively, the Irish struggle to handle size and physicality. That’s a red flag facing Duke’s interior attack.
Betting Outlook and Prediction
The total of 140 suggests a controlled tempo. Duke’s defense should dictate pace, and Notre Dame’s offensive limitations point toward scoring droughts.
The number is big at 17.5, but Duke’s rebounding edge and efficiency inside create separation potential. Notre Dame’s reliance on contested threes against an elite defense is not a recipe for an upset.
Final Score: Duke 78, Notre Dame 59
Lean: Duke -17.5
Total: Under 140.0
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
