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Iowa (22-12) vs Florida (27-7)
- When: Mar 22 2026, 7:10 PM
- Where: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL, USA
- Where to watch: TBS
(9) Iowa vs (1) Florida Preview & Prediction
Spread: Florida -10.0
Moneyline: Florida (-600)
Total: 144.5
Florida Gators: Certified Bracket Destroyers
Florida didn’t win their first-round game… they committed a public basketball execution. A 114-55 demolition. Fifty-nine points. That’s not a margin, that’s a warning label. Shooting 64.3% and winning the boards 54-20, the Gators basically said, “Defense is optional when we score whenever we want.”
Seven players hit double digits, because apparently sharing is caring… unless you’re the opponent. This team plays fast, deep, and with the confidence of a defending champ that knows exactly how this movie ends.
And now they get to play again in Tampa with a pro-Florida crowd. So yes, the environment is also working against Iowa. Lovely.
Iowa Hawkeyes: Hope, Vibes and a Prayer
Iowa did their job, beating Clemson 67-61, but let’s be honest… this is a completely different beast. They prefer a slower, controlled game, which is great—until Florida turns it into a track meet and suddenly you’re sprinting downhill with no brakes.
Bennett Stirtz is the key, even after a rough 4-of-17 shooting night for 16 points. He’s the engine, the creator, the guy that has to show up if Iowa wants to keep this remotely competitive. The good news? He’ll probably bounce back. The bad news? Florida is already planning a full team intervention on him.
Iowa’s path to staying alive is simple in theory: slow it down, hit shots, and somehow survive the avalanche. In practice… good luck.
Betting Prediction (Let’s Not Overthink This)
Florida at -10.0 feels like one of those lines that looks big until you remember they just won by 59. The pace mismatch is massive, and if Florida gets rolling early, this can spiral quickly.
Iowa can hang around if they control tempo and Stirtz finds rhythm, but Florida’s depth, speed, and scoring versatility are overwhelming over 40 minutes.
The total at 144.5 is interesting. If Iowa slows it down, it leans under. If Florida dictates pace, it could fly over. That’s the gamble.
Florida just has too many ways to win… and cover.
Final Score: Florida 82, Iowa 68
Lean: Florida -10.0
Total: Over 144.5
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
