The first quarter of the NFL season has come to a close, and it’s time to assess where each team stands. The favorites had a strong showing, going 12-4 straight up and 9-6-1 against the spread (ATS). While the favorites covered in 9 of the 16 games for the second consecutive week, the Over only hit in 6 out of 16 contests.
In terms of our picks last week, we went 1-2 ATS, bringing our season record to an even 6-6. We correctly predicted the Seahawks would be favorites on Monday Night Football and they delivered an easy win. However, the Dolphins fell short against the Bills and the Steelers suffered an embarrassing loss to the Texans.
Now let’s dive into the biggest storylines from Week 4 before we move on to Week 5 picks. The Detroit Lions made a statement with a convincing road win over the Green Bay Packers, signaling their intent to compete for the NFC North title. The Jacksonville Jaguars continued their winning ways in London, defeating the Atlanta Falcons. Lamar Jackson showcased his skills against the Browns, leading the Ravens to a dominant victory. The Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive struggles continued, scoring only 3 points for the second time this season. The Buffalo Bills asserted their dominance over the Miami Dolphins with a commanding 48-20 win. The Denver Broncos came back from a 28-7 deficit to defeat the Chicago Bears. The Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers remained undefeated, with the Eagles securing a thrilling overtime victory.
As we head into Week 5, despite the bye weeks beginning, there are still some exciting matchups to look forward to. Here are our best bets against the spread (ATS) for the upcoming games:
Game 1: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
Opening Line: Detroit Lions (-9)
The Panthers are still searching for their first win of the season, but they showed promise in Week 4. While the Lions have been performing well offensively, their defense has been inconsistent. We expect the Panthers’ defense to keep the game close, making the +9 spread too wide. Pick: Carolina Panthers (+9)
Game 2: Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
Opening Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Bengals have had a rough start to the season, but a matchup against the struggling Cardinals gives them a chance to turn it around. The Cardinals have struggled to close out games, and their defense has been porous. We believe the Bengals will bounce back and cover the -3 spread. Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Game 3: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
The 49ers have been dominant this season, led by their high-powered offense and stout defense. The Cowboys’ defense has been impressive so far, but this will be their toughest test yet. With the 49ers being the more proven team, we expect them to cover the -3.5 spread. Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
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