The Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers faced off in the NFL Wildcard Weekend with the Jags coming out on top despite key injuries. After their recent successes, the line opened up Jags plus one and a half but now its in favored of the Chargers at -2.5. The public is split on this matchup so it looks like an even game with its fair share of potential upsets.
Both teams have made considerable improvements over the last five weeks since their first match up. According to DVOA metrics, the Jags rank third and the Chargers come in sixth overall in the entire NFL. Trevor Lawrence has been playing exceptionally well—third best in EPA per drop back since week nine—and Jacksonville’s offensive line has given him more time make better reads while their defense held its own against opposing offenses. Los Angeles has also adapted by placing greater emphasis on running plays while diversifying their passing attack with play action looks while Joey Bosa’s return from injury gave them extra support on defense.
Whoever wins this game will likely be facing Kansas City at Arrowhead who currently stand on top of NFL power rankings. This match up between two elite teams promises plenty of fireworks even though only one can emerge victorious.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been riding a red hot pass defense to push their way into the playoffs. This defense is one of the best kept secrets in the NFL, allowing just 11 points per game on average and forcing four interceptions within a four week stretch. Joey Bosa has returned to form, while Khalil Mack’s play has been nothing short of elite. With Trevor Lawrence at the helm, it looks like the Chargers are ready for a deep playoff run behind an interception-hungry wall of playmakers.
Looking at the recent opponents of the Jacksonville Jaguars, it has been difficult to get a read on their performance. They have faced Tennessee twice, Houston and Dallas in their last five games. In each of these matchups, Trevor Lawrence was able to perform well against solid defenses, but he suffered from some fumbling problems that may hinder him during playoff passes. With everyone betting on the over for this weeks game against the Chargers, the total remains unchanged at 47 and a half points. Despite Trevor Lawrence’s hot streak, Mike Williams being out for the Chargers could hurt their offense, Still i believe that Jacksonville is leaning more towards rebuilding rather than contending this season. That said, im going with the LA Chargers on the money line at -135 for my NFL Wildcard Pick.
LA Chargers at Jacksonville
When: 8:15 PM ET, Saturday, January 14, 2023
Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Where to watch: NBC
Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Moneyline
Los Angeles Chargers -135
Jacksonville Jaguars +115
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Point Spread
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-105)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Total
Over 47.5 (-110)
Under 47.5 (-110)
Team Record & Betting Stats
| Name | Record | ATS | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Chargers | 10-7 | 11-5-1 | 23.00 | 22.59 |
| Jacksonville | 9-8 | 8-9 | 23.76 | 20.59 |
| Name | ATS Home | ATS Away | OU Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Chargers | 4-3-1 | 7-2 | 6-9-2 |
| Jacksonville | 4-4 | 4-5 | 8-9 |
Los Angeles Chargers Last 5 Games
| Opponent | score | Result | line | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 28-31 | L | 6.5/39 | W/O |
| LAR | 31-10 | W | -6.5/41 | W/P |
| IND | 20-3 | W | -3.5/44.5 | W/U |
| TEN | 17-14 | W | -3/46.5 | P/U |
| MIA | 23-17 | W | 3/55 | W/U |
Jacksonville Jaguars Last 5 Games
| Opponent | score | Result | line | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 20-16 | W | -6/39.5 | L/U |
| HOU | 31-3 | W | -3.5/43.5 | W/U |
| NYJ | 19-3 | W | 2.5/36.5 | W/U |
| DAL | 40-34 | W | 4/48 | W/O |
| TEN | 36-22 | W | 3/41.5 | W/O |
Betting Odds Trends
| Los Angeles Chargers | ||
|---|---|---|
| LA Chargers is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games | ||
| LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers’s last 6 games | ||
| LA Chargers is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers’s last 6 games on the road | ||
| LA Chargers is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville | ||
| LA Chargers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville | ||
| The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers’s last 7 games when playing Jacksonville | ||
| LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville | ||
| LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville | ||
| The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | ||
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games | ||
| Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games | ||
| Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home | ||
| Jacksonville is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games at home | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Jacksonville’s last 14 games at home | ||
| Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers | ||
| Jacksonville is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers | ||
| The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville’s last 7 games when playing LA Chargers | ||
| Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers | ||
| Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers | ||
| The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers | ||
LA Chargers Injuries
| Player | Status/Updated |
|---|---|
| Raheem Layne | Prob Sat – Thumb – 1/11/23 |
| Kenneth Murray Jr. | Prob Sat – Neck – 1/10/23 |
| Amen Ogbongbemiga | Prob Sat – Bicep – 1/10/23 |
| Trey Pipkins III | Prob Sat – Knee – 1/10/23 |
| Joey Bosa | Prob Sat – Groin – 1/10/23 |
| Bryce Callahan | Prob Sat – Groin – 1/10/23 |
| Zander Horvath | Prob Sat – Ankle – 1/10/23 |
| Mike Williams | Out Sat – Back – 1/13/23 |
| Kemon Hall | Out indefinitely – Hamstring – 12/26/22 |
| Joe Gaziano | I-R – Groin – 12/21/22 |
| Richard Rodgers | Out indefinitely – Knee – 12/10/22 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | I-R – Quadricep – 11/20/22 |
| Christian Covington | I-R – Pectoral – 11/20/22 |
| Austin Johnson | I-R – Knee – 11/9/22 |
| J.C. Jackson | I-R – Knee – 10/26/22 |
| Dustin Hopkins | Out indefinitely – Hamstring – 11/22/22 |
| Jalen Guyton | I-R – Knee – 9/27/22 |
| Rashawn Slater | I-R – Bicep – 9/28/22 |
| Andrew Trainer | I-R – Shoulder – 8/18/22 |
Jacksonville Injuries
| Player | Status/Updated |
|---|---|
| Riley Patterson | Prob Sat – Knee – 1/11/23 |
| Kendric Pryor | Ques Sat – Shoulder – 1/11/23 |
| Ross Matiscik | Ques Sat – Back – 1/10/23 |
| Jamal Agnew | Ques Sat – Shoulder – 1/10/23 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Ques Sat – Toe – 1/10/23 |
| Brandon Scherff | Ques Sat – Abdominal – 1/10/23 |
| Calvin Ridley | out for season – Suspension – 11/1/22 |
| Dawuane Smoot | I-R – Achilles – 12/26/22 |
| Cam Robinson | I-R – Knee – 12/26/22 |
| Shaquill Griffin | Out indefinitely – Back – 10/26/22 |
| Ben Bartch | I-R – Knee – 10/12/22 |
| Jordan Smith | I-R – Knee – 8/18/22 |
NFL Picks & Free Predictions
Expert Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -135NFL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
