Pittsburgh (10-7) at Baltimore (12-5)
- When: Jan 11 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
- Where to watch: Amazon Prime Video
Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Steelers +375
Baltimore Ravens -525
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Point Spread
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Total
Over 44.0 (-110)
Under 44.0 (-110)
- Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
Key Players:
Pittsburgh: Russell Wilson
Baltimore:
Lamar Jackson
Team Stats
| Steelers | Ravens | |
| 10-7 | Record | 12-5 |
| 5-4 | Away & Home | 6-2 |
| 11-6-0 | ATS | 10-6-1 |
| 8-9-0 | O/U | 13-4-0 |
Last Matchup:
BAL 34-17, December 21st, 2024
Game Preview
Baltimore enters Saturday’s wild-card matchup as a 9.5-point favorite, with the total set at 44.0, as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers in what promises to be a gritty AFC playoff battle. Both teams know each other well, splitting their two regular-season meetings, but with the stakes higher than ever, all eyes are on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ postseason aspirations.
Betting Analysis
Lamar Jackson’s playoff record has been a hot topic leading into this game. Despite his two MVP trophies, Jackson has yet to silence his postseason critics, posting a 2-4 playoff record with six interceptions and three lost fumbles. His playoff resume shows flashes of brilliance, but costly mistakes have been a recurring issue. This time, the Ravens hope that Jackson’s improved poise and their dominant ground game can lead them to victory.
A major X-factor is running back Derrick Henry, who rushed for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, making an immediate impact in his first year with Baltimore. Henry’s playoff experience—including a deep run with Tennessee—could be the key to keeping the offense balanced and controlling the tempo.
Key Matchups and Storylines
Baltimore’s Offense vs. Pittsburgh’s Defense: In their last meeting, Jackson threw three touchdown passes while Henry racked up 162 rushing yards, leading the Ravens to a 34-17 win. However, Pittsburgh’s defense, led by Cameron Heyward, is capable of tightening up if they avoid the mistakes that cost them in December. Heyward, who missed practice time this week, is expected to play and will be crucial in containing Henry.
Turnover Battle: Baltimore’s offense needs to minimize turnovers, as Pittsburgh’s best chance to stay competitive is by forcing mistakes. Jackson’s ball security has been a concern in past playoff games, so keeping the offense mistake-free is vital.
Russell Wilson’s Poise: The veteran quarterback will need to carry a Steelers offense that has struggled mightily during their current four-game losing streak, averaging just 14.2 points per game. Wilson’s postseason experience (9-7 record, Super Bowl champion) could keep Pittsburgh in the game, but without a more productive offensive showing, it will be hard to match Baltimore’s firepower.
Injury Impact
The Ravens will be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers, who was ruled out after missing practice due to a knee injury. Baltimore’s special teams could get a boost if Deonte Harty, who returned to practice this week, is cleared to play. For Pittsburgh, starting right guard Mason McCormick is questionable, which could weaken their offensive line against Baltimore’s pass rush.
Betting Predictions
Spread Pick (-9.5): While a nearly double-digit spread is significant for a playoff game, Baltimore’s recent dominance and Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles make the Ravens a strong pick to cover. With Jackson and Henry leading the way, Baltimore has the tools to pull away in the second half.
Total Pick (44.0): The under is appealing, considering Pittsburgh’s inability to score more than 17 points in their last four games. Unless Wilson can reignite the offense, this game may stay low-scoring despite Baltimore’s explosive potential.
Prop Bets to Watch:
Derrick Henry over 95.5 rushing yards: Henry has been a workhorse and could have another big day against a Steelers defense that’s had trouble stopping the run.
Russell Wilson over 0.5 interceptions: With Baltimore’s pass rush and secondary applying pressure, Wilson may be forced into risky throws.
Total sacks over 4.5: Both teams have strong defensive lines, making this a solid bet.
Prediction:
The Ravens’ balanced offense and aggressive defense should be enough to overpower a Steelers team that has struggled to find rhythm. Expect Baltimore to control the clock with Henry’s rushing attack and force Pittsburgh to play from behind, leading to a comfortable win and a cover of the spread.
NFL Parlay Picks & Predictions
Final Score: Baltimore 27-13
Expert Pick: Baltimore -9½ & Under 44
A $100 Parlay Bet will return $364
- NFL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
