Denver (10-7-0) at Buffalo (13-4-0)
- When: Jan 12 2025, 1:00 PM
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Where to watch: CBS
Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Moneyline
Denver Broncos +355
Buffalo Bills -490
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Point Spread
Denver Broncos 8.5 (-105)
Buffalo Bills -8.5 (-115)
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Total
Over 48.0 (-110)
Under 48.0 (-110)
- Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
Key Players:
Denver:
Bo Nix
Buffalo: Josh Allen
Team Stats
| Broncos | Bills | |
| 10-7 | Record | 13-4 |
| 4-5 | Away & Home | 8-0 |
| 12-5-0 | ATS | 10-7-0 |
| 11-5-1 | O/U | 11-6-0 |
Last Matchup:
DEN 24-22, November 13th, 2023
Game Preview
The Buffalo Bills head into Sunday’s AFC wild-card matchup as 8.5-point favorites, with the total set at 48.0, as they kick off their latest playoff campaign against the seventh-seeded Denver Broncos in Orchard Park, NY. Buffalo has built a reputation for regular-season dominance under head coach Sean McDermott and star quarterback Josh Allen, yet their quest for a Super Bowl title continues to elude them.
Betting Analysis
The Bills (13-4) have become postseason regulars, making the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year and winning their wild-card game in each of the last four seasons. Despite their consistency, Buffalo has only reached one AFC Championship Game during that stretch, and McDermott acknowledges that the team carries the weight of past disappointments.
Meanwhile, the Broncos (10-7) are making their first playoff appearance since Peyton Manning led them to victory in Super Bowl 50. This time, the Broncos are powered by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who has elevated the franchise back into contention. Nix wrapped up an impressive regular season with 3,775 passing yards, 29 touchdowns through the air, and four more on the ground. In last week’s playoff-clinching 38-0 win over a resting Kansas City Chiefs squad, Nix threw for 321 yards and four touchdowns, showcasing his ability to rise to the occasion.
Key Matchups and Storylines
Buffalo’s Offensive Line vs. Denver’s Pass Rush: The Bills allowed the fewest sacks (14) and turnovers (eight) in the league this season. However, they’ll face a Denver defense that led the NFL with 63 sacks, fueled by standout performances from Nik Bonitto (13.5 sacks) and Jonathon Cooper (10.5 sacks). Broncos coach Sean Payton emphasized the emotional and tactical impact of sacks, calling them drive-killers that force offenses out of rhythm.
Josh Allen’s Wild-Card Dominance: Allen has thrown 13 touchdowns in five wild-card games (4-1 record), ranking behind only Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers in wild-card TDs. With offensive coordinator Joe Brady calling the shots, Buffalo boasts the second-highest scoring offense (30.9 points per game) and a balanced attack that ranks in the top 10 in both rushing and passing yards. The challenge will be avoiding mistakes like the ones that cost them when these teams met in November 2023—a game where Allen threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in a 24-22 loss.
Bo Nix’s Composure: Nix has been a revelation for the Broncos and looks poised to shine under the playoff spotlight. His ability to extend plays and make smart decisions has transformed Denver’s offense. However, facing a Buffalo defense hungry for redemption, Nix will need to stay composed against a hostile crowd and a defense capable of capitalizing on turnovers.
Injury Report and Impact
Denver will be without backup offensive tackle Frank Crum due to illness, which could put added pressure on their pass protection. Running back Tyler Badie, who has been sidelined since September with a back injury, is questionable but could provide a spark if cleared to play.
Buffalo’s primary concern is defensive back and return specialist Brandon Codrington, who is questionable after a hamstring issue limited his practice participation. His absence could affect both the Bills’ secondary and their special teams play.
Betting Predictions
Spread Pick (-8.5): The Bills have the firepower to cover the spread, especially if they can protect Allen from Denver’s pass rush. However, with the Broncos’ defense being disruptive, there’s a chance for a closer-than-expected contest.
Total Pick (48.0): The over looks appealing with two potent offenses on display. If Nix and the Broncos can remain competitive, this could turn into a high-scoring affair.
Prop Bets to Watch:
Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns: Allen thrives in wild-card games and could torch Denver’s secondary if given time.
Bo Nix over 245.5 passing yards: Nix has shown he can light up the stat sheet, even against solid defenses.
Total team sacks over 4.5: Both defensive units excel at creating pressure, making this an intriguing prop to consider.
Prediction
The Bills’ offense is too dynamic for the Broncos to hold back for four quarters. Expect Allen to lead an efficient, high-scoring performance, while Nix will likely make some big plays but fall short as Buffalo pulls away late to cover the spread and advance.
NFL Parlay Picks & Predictions
Final Score: Buffalo 32-20
The Pick: Buffalo -8½ (-115) & Over 48
A $100 Parlay Bet will return $357
- NFL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
