Kentucky (14-5) at Tennessee (17-3)
- When: Jan 28 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Game Preview
Tennessee and Kentucky are both looking to rebound from recent struggles, having combined for eight losses this season, six of which have come in the past three weeks. On Tuesday night, one team will add another defeat to that tally as the No. 8 Volunteers host the No. 12 Wildcats in an SEC showdown in Knoxville. With Tennessee favored by 10.5 points and the total set at 147.5, there’s plenty to unpack from a gambling perspective.
Tennessee Volunteers Analysis
The Volunteers started the season red-hot, winning their first 14 games and holding the title as the nation’s last unbeaten team. However, they’ve gone just 3-3 in their last six outings, with offensive inconsistency becoming a glaring issue. Tennessee is coming off a 53-51 loss to top-ranked Auburn, a game in which they shot just 31.5% from the field and a woeful 4 of 22 from beyond the arc.
Defense has been the backbone of Tennessee’s success. They rank among the nation’s elite, holding opponents to just 58.6 points per game and locking down Auburn to 31% shooting in their most recent contest. If their defense continues to perform at this level, the Under 147.5 becomes a strong consideration.
On offense, Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier need to step up. Zeigler scored 14 points against Auburn but shot just 4 of 15, while Lanier has struggled in SEC play, averaging only 12.5 points on 30.5% shooting over the last six games. If Lanier can regain his nonconference form, where he had a season-high 29 points against Arkansas, Tennessee could easily cover the 10.5-point spread.
Kentucky Wildcats Analysis
The Wildcats have hit a rough patch, losing three of their last five games, including back-to-back defeats to Alabama and Vanderbilt. Turnovers were a major issue in their 74-69 loss to Vanderbilt, as Kentucky coughed up the ball 17 times while the Commodores had just five turnovers. Cleaning up ball security will be crucial if they want to stay competitive against Tennessee’s suffocating defense.
Kentucky will likely be without forward Andrew Carr, who ranks fourth on the team in scoring (10.9 points per game) and second in rebounding (5.6). His absence will put even more pressure on leading scorer Otega Oweh, who has scored 21 points in back-to-back games and is averaging 15.9 points per game this season. Oweh’s points prop Over 19.5 could offer value as he continues to be the focal point of Kentucky’s offense.
Key Matchups & Trends
Defense vs. Turnovers: Tennessee’s top-tier defense will look to exploit Kentucky’s turnover issues, which could lead to easy scoring opportunities for the Volunteers.
Lanier’s Production: Tennessee’s offense relies on Lanier, and his ability to break out of his shooting slump will play a pivotal role in whether they cover the spread.
Kentucky’s Road Struggles: The Wildcats are just 1-3 on the road this season and have already lost to Tennessee at home by 18 points last month.
Betting Predictions
This matchup heavily favors Tennessee, particularly with Kentucky’s struggles in taking care of the ball and their lack of depth due to injuries. Tennessee’s elite defense and home-court advantage make them the clear choice to cover the 10.5-point spread. However, with both teams battling offensive inconsistencies, the Under 147.5 looks like a strong secondary bet.
Best Bets:
Tennessee -10.5 (The Volunteers’ defense will stifle Kentucky’s shorthanded offense.)
Under 147.5 (Both teams have struggled offensively, and Tennessee’s defense should control the pace.)
Player Props:
Otega Oweh Over 19.5 Points (Kentucky’s top scorer will take on a larger role.)
Zakai Zeigler Over 14.5 Points (Expect him to lead Tennessee’s scoring attack.)
Final Score Prediction: Tennessee 77, Kentucky 62
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
