Michigan State (21-5) at Michigan (20-5)
- When: Feb 21 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
- Where to watch: FOX
Game Preview
The stakes couldn’t be higher as Michigan and Michigan State clash for the first time this season, with the top spot in the Big Ten up for grabs. The Wolverines enter the matchup as slight favorites at home, while the Spartans look to pull off the upset and overtake their bitter rivals in the standings. With March Madness fast approaching, this game carries major conference and tournament implications.
Michigan: Protecting Home Court in a Statement Game
Current Record: 20-5 (12-2 Big Ten) | 1st Place in Conference
Michigan is riding a six-game winning streak, proving their ability to close out tight contests, as all six victories have come by four points or fewer. Head coach Dusty May’s squad has found its identity behind a unique offensive scheme led by their twin towers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. The duo, nicknamed “Area 50-1,” has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, excelling in pick-and-roll situations and creating mismatches all over the court.
Goldin (15.7 PPG) and Wolf (12.9 PPG, 10.0 RPG) have been dominant inside, but Wolf’s ability to handle the ball and facilitate (3.6 APG) makes Michigan’s attack even more versatile. Against Ohio State, the Wolverines executed 10 successful pick-and-roll plays between the two big men, keeping defenses on their heels.
With Michigan sitting just half a game ahead of Michigan State, the Wolverines will be motivated to protect their home court and stay atop the Big Ten. Their efficiency in clutch moments has been their biggest strength, and if they can continue that trend, they have the tools to cover the spread and grab another conference win.
Key Betting Trends:
Michigan is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games.
The Wolverines are 15-1 at home this season.
The under has hit in 5 of Michigan’s last 7 games.
Michigan State: Depth and Defense to Test Michigan’s Size
Current Record: 21-5 (12-3 Big Ten) | 2nd Place in Conference
Michigan State has won back-to-back games against Illinois and Purdue, proving they can hang with top-tier competition. Unlike Michigan, the Spartans don’t rely on one or two dominant scorers. Instead, they spread the wealth with depth and defensive versatility, boasting a 10-man rotation that wears teams down over 40 minutes.
Jaden Akins (13.1 PPG) and Jase Richardson (10.4 PPG) lead the way offensively, but Michigan State’s real strength lies in its ability to disrupt opposing offenses. The Spartans will rotate four big men—Jaxon Kohler, Szymon Zapala, Carson Cooper, and Xavier Booker—to challenge Michigan’s towering frontcourt.
Tom Izzo’s squad is also in the middle of a brutal stretch of Quad 1 matchups, with ranked opponents Maryland and Wisconsin looming. Avoiding another loss is crucial for their Big Ten title hopes, making this game a must-win in their eyes.
Key Betting Trends:
Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
The Spartans have won three of their last four road matchups outright.
The over has hit in 6 of Michigan State’s last 9 games.
Betting Prediction & Final Score Pick
This rivalry matchup should live up to the hype, with Michigan’s size and inside dominance clashing against Michigan State’s depth and defensive tenacity. The Wolverines’ ability to execute in late-game situations makes them a strong bet to win outright, but the Spartans’ depth could keep them in the game longer than expected.
Expect Michigan to control the paint, but Michigan State’s defense should prevent the game from turning into a shootout. With both teams capable of slowing the pace, the under 151.0 looks like the best bet here.
Final Score Prediction: Michigan 74, Michigan State 72
Best Bets:
Michigan ML (-150) – Wolverines’ home dominance should prevail.
Under 151.0 – Michigan’s pace and defensive play make this a strong under spot.
Michigan State +3 – The Spartans’ depth keeps them within reach.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
