Mississippi State (19-8) at Alabama (22-5)
- When: Feb 25 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN2
Game Preview
Alabama Favored by 8.5, Total Set at 171.5
Two SEC rivals square off on Tuesday night as No. 6 Alabama hosts No. 24 Mississippi State in what should be a high-scoring battle. The Crimson Tide have owned this matchup in recent years, winning seven straight against the Bulldogs, including all six meetings under head coach Chris Jans.
Alabama comes into this one looking to build off a strong win over Kentucky, while Mississippi State is hoping to bounce back after a tough road loss to Oklahoma. The Bulldogs’ defense has been a concern, and against an Alabama team that ranks among the best in the country offensively, they’ll need to tighten things up to have a shot at covering the number.
With Alabama favored by 8.5 points and the total set at 171.5, this game is expected to be a fast-paced, offensive showdown. Let’s break down both teams and the best betting angles for this SEC clash.
Alabama Crimson Tide: Sears Leading the Charge
Alabama (22-5, 11-3 SEC) snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday with a 96-83 win over Kentucky, and much of that success can be credited to Mark Sears, who is playing the best basketball of his career.
Sears is coming off back-to-back 30-point performances, dropping 35 points against Missouri and 30 against Kentucky, showing that he is capable of taking over games.
Sears had a rocky stretch earlier in the season, even getting benched for the second half against LSU in late January due to lackluster defensive effort. However, since that moment, he has stepped up on both ends of the floor, and head coach Nate Oats has praised his commitment.
“Sears is playing the best basketball I’ve seen him play since he’s been here, on both sides of the ball,” Oats said. “He came back to try to win a national championship. His effort on defense has been through the roof the last few weeks.”
Alabama continues to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the country, but their defensive struggles remain a concern. The Crimson Tide have allowed at least 80 points in eight of their last ten games, making them a high-risk team to trust in double-digit spreads.
In their first meeting with Mississippi State on Jan. 29, Alabama escaped with an 88-84 road win, largely thanks to Chris Youngblood’s 23-point effort and seven made threes. With their offensive firepower, the Tide are always dangerous at home, but covering this spread will depend on whether their defense shows up.
Key Betting Trends for Alabama:
Alabama is 7-1 straight up in its last eight games at home.
The Over has hit in 6 of Alabama’s last 8 games.
Alabama is just 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games.
Player Prop to Watch:
Mark Sears Over 20.5 Points – He has scored 30+ in back-to-back games and will remain the focal point of Alabama’s offense.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Searching for a Defensive Identity
Mississippi State (19-8, 7-7 SEC) enters this game reeling from a tough 93-87 loss at Oklahoma, where their defense collapsed in the second half. The Sooners shot 68% after halftime, exposing the Bulldogs’ inability to close out on shooters.
“We couldn’t guard them in the second half,” head coach Chris Jans said. “We switched coverages multiple times to try to screw them up … but unfortunately, it didn’t work out.”
Defense has been a major issue for Mississippi State in SEC play, and going up against Alabama’s high-powered offense won’t make things any easier. If the Bulldogs can’t slow down Alabama’s perimeter shooting, they’ll likely struggle to keep this game within reach.
However, Josh Hubbard remains a bright spot. The freshman guard is averaging 17.9 PPG and has been lethal from three-point range. In the first meeting against Alabama, Hubbard put on a show, scoring a career-high 38 points while draining six three-pointers. If he can replicate that performance, Mississippi State could be in a position to cover the spread.
The Bulldogs have lost all six meetings against Alabama under Jans, but they have been competitive in most matchups. Mississippi State needs to find a way to slow down Alabama’s transition attack while capitalizing on their own offensive opportunities to stay within the number.
Key Betting Trends for Mississippi State:
Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.
The Over has hit in 5 of Mississippi State’s last 7 road games.
The Bulldogs are 0-7 straight up in their last seven games against Alabama.
Player Prop to Watch:
Josh Hubbard Over 20.5 Points – The freshman has been Mississippi State’s best offensive weapon and will be relied upon to keep the Bulldogs in the game.
Game Prediction & Best Bets
This game is shaping up to be a high-scoring, up-tempo battle, with Alabama’s elite offense clashing with Mississippi State’s inconsistent defense. The Crimson Tide’s defensive struggles make it risky to lay 8.5 points, especially against a Bulldogs team that played them close in their first matchup.
Mississippi State has kept most games competitive, and if Josh Hubbard heats up from deep, they could make this another tight contest. However, Alabama’s offensive firepower should be enough to secure the win, even if covering the spread is a challenge.
Best Bets:
Mississippi State +8.5 – The Bulldogs have kept games close against Alabama and could do so again.
Over 171.5 – Both teams prioritize offense, and neither has shown much consistency on defense.
Mark Sears Over 20.5 Points – He’s been on fire, and there’s no reason to expect that to change.
Final Score Prediction: Alabama 92, Mississippi State 86
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
