Michigan State (24-5) at Iowa (15-14)
- When: Mar 6 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA, USA
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Michigan State vs. Iowa: Betting Preview, Predictions & Props
🔥 Michigan State is a 7-point favorite with the total set at 151.5.
The No. 8 Spartans head to Iowa City on Thursday night with a chance to clinch the outright Big Ten regular-season title after already securing a share of the championship. Meanwhile, Iowa is looking to play spoiler on Senior Night, despite a rough stretch that has seen them lose 10 of their last 13 games.
Michigan State: Aiming to Lock Up the Big Ten Title
The Spartans (24-5, 15-3 Big Ten) didn’t even have to step on the court Wednesday to lock up at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season title, thanks to Michigan’s 71-65 loss to Maryland. However, Tom Izzo’s squad wants the title outright, and all they need is a win in Iowa City to secure it.
Izzo Keeping His Team Focused
Despite adding another banner to Michigan State’s storied program, Tom Izzo has his sights set on bigger goals.
“This is why you come here. This is what we do here. We don’t hang things for records. We hang things for championships,” Izzo said.
Izzo also recently passed Bob Knight for the most wins by a head coach in Big Ten history. This would be his 11th Big Ten title, tying the all-time record.
Spartans’ Momentum & Key Players
Michigan State has won five straight games, including four in a row against Top 20 opponents.
Jase Richardson has emerged as a key contributor, leading the Spartans in scoring in three of their last four victories.
Jaden Akins (19 points vs. Wisconsin) is heating up at the right time.
Depth is Michigan State’s biggest asset, as they consistently go 10 deep in their rotation, a rarity among national title contenders.
Betting Trends for Michigan State:
✅ 5-0 SU in last five games
✅ 4-1 ATS in last five games
✅ 9-4 ATS as a road favorite this season
Iowa: Trying to Salvage Senior Night
The Hawkeyes (15-14, 6-12 Big Ten) were once 12-4, but have since fallen apart, losing 10 of their last 13. They haven’t played since a 68-57 loss at Northwestern last Friday and are running out of time to fix their season.
McCaffery Under Pressure
With the team struggling, head coach Fran McCaffery is facing criticism about his future. However, he’s making it clear he has no plans to leave voluntarily.
“I’m fully committed to the program and to the players,” McCaffery said.
While some question his intensity on the sidelines, Iowa’s players stand behind him, particularly senior forward Payton Sandfort.
“He gets a really bad rap because of his antics on TV, but all that is is just caring for us and wanting the best for his players,” Sandfort said.
Key Players for Iowa
Payton Sandfort (16.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG) is now Iowa’s top option with Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG) out for the season.
The Hawkeyes have struggled to score in recent weeks, failing to reach 70 points in five of their last eight games.
Their defense is among the worst in the Big Ten, allowing 77.8 PPG (last in the conference).
Betting Trends for Iowa:
❌ 3-10 SU in last 13 games
❌ 2-8 ATS in last 10 home games
✅ Overs have hit in 6 of last 8 games
Final Prediction & Best Bets
Michigan State has everything to play for, while Iowa is simply trying to save face on Senior Night. The Hawkeyes’ defense has been atrocious, and Michigan State’s depth and efficiency should prove too much to handle. The Spartans are playing their best basketball of the season, and with an outright Big Ten title on the line, expect Izzo’s team to handle business.
🔥 Best Bets:
✅ Michigan State -7 – The Spartans are too deep and too well-coached to drop this one.
✅ Over 151.5 – Iowa’s defense is weak, and Michigan State should put up points with ease.
✅ Michigan State Team Total Over 78.5 – The Spartans have scored 70+ in seven straight games.
Projected Score: Michigan State 84, Iowa 72
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
