Houston (26-4) at Baylor (18-12)
- When: Mar 8 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Game Preview
Spread: Houston -4.0 | Total: 131.5
Houston Cougars
The third-ranked Cougars have been nothing short of dominant in Big 12 play, already clinching the regular-season conference title with an 18-1 record heading into their final game against Baylor. Head coach Kelvin Sampson isn’t one to dwell on past accomplishments, but even he acknowledged how rare it is to run through a league as competitive as the Big 12 with just one loss.
“Going 18-1 in this league is unheard of,” Sampson said. “Guys don’t do that. You have to have some good fortune along the way too.”
That one loss came in a tight 82-81 battle against Texas Tech on Feb. 1, a game where Houston came up just short despite their defensive prowess. However, the Cougars have proven time and again that defense wins championships—holding 11 of their 19 conference opponents to under 60 points.
Houston has been particularly lethal on the road, boasting a 9-0 record away from home. Their defense, which ranks among the nation’s best, will be tested against a Baylor team that has been nearly unbeatable in Waco (13-2 home record).
The Cougars handled Baylor 76-65 in their first meeting back on Feb. 10, with former Bears guard L.J. Cryer leading the way for Houston with 14 points. Cryer, who transferred from Baylor, has been a key contributor for the Cougars, leading the team in scoring (15.0 PPG) and three-pointers made (87).
Even though the Big 12 title is locked up, Sampson isn’t allowing complacency to creep in.
“I’m never going to say we’re playing our best ball because I prefer to think our best ball is ahead of us,” Sampson said. “We’ve just got to continue to work, that’s the bottom line. Stay humble, keep working.”
Baylor Bears
Baylor is still fighting for its NCAA Tournament positioning, and while the Bears have won back-to-back games, they aren’t a lock just yet.
A loss to Houston and a first-round Big 12 tournament exit could put them on the bubble, while an upset win over the Cougars would all but solidify their spot in the Big Dance.
Head coach Scott Drew knows the stakes are high, and Tuesday’s 61-58 road win over TCU was a much-needed boost.
“We’ve been close to the bubble area,” Drew said. “We’re not used to being in this position and getting a road win like this was huge for that. And at the same time, you’ve got to get momentum, and you’ve got to be playing better.”
Robert Wright III delivered in the clutch against TCU, sinking two free throws with 2.2 seconds left to seal the victory. Norchad Omier was a force, recording 19 points and 12 rebounds for his 18th double-double of the season, while VJ Edgecombe added 18 points and seven boards.
Edgecombe, who has been a key scorer for Baylor, understands the team needs intensity and effort to take down Houston.
“When you play with passion, that’s what it’s going to take,” Edgecombe said. “I’m just trying to do all the little things—diving into the bench, whatever it takes to win.”
Baylor’s home-court advantage has been one of the best in the conference, and they’ll need to use it to their full advantage if they want to pull off the upset.
Betting Predictions & Player Props
Spread Pick: Houston -4.0 – The Cougars’ defense has been suffocating, and they have already beaten Baylor by 11 points earlier this season. Expect them to control the tempo and grind out another win on the road.
Over/Under Pick: Under 131.5 – Both teams play at a slow pace, and Houston’s elite defense could make this a low-scoring affair. Points will come at a premium in this matchup.
Player Prop to Watch: L.J. Cryer Points Over 14.5 – Cryer torched his former team last time out, and he’ll be extra motivated to put on another strong performance in Waco.
Player Prop to Watch: Norchad Omier Rebounds Over 9.5 – Omier is one of the best rebounders in the Big 12, and he’ll need to dominate the glass to keep Baylor competitive.
Houston has been the class of the Big 12 all season, and while Baylor is desperate for a win, the Cougars’ suffocating defense and road dominance make them the smart play in this regular-season finale.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
