Denver (41-23) at Oklahoma City (53-11)
- When: Mar 10 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK, USA
- TV: NBA TV
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets – Betting Preview & Predictions
Thunder Favored by 9.0 | Total Set at 238.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are rolling, extending their winning streak to seven games after dismantling the Nuggets 127-103 on Sunday night. They’ve now put together four separate streaks of at least seven wins this season, proving their dominance in the Western Conference.
Leading the charge is MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been putting up video game-like numbers. Over his last three games, SGA is averaging 44 points, 5 rebounds, and 6.7 assists while maintaining elite efficiency from the field. He has also made all 28 of his free throws in that span, further showcasing his ability to draw contact and capitalize at the stripe.
In Sunday’s win, Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 40 points, eight rebounds, and five assists while shooting 13-of-21 inside the arc and going a perfect 8-for-8 from the free-throw line. The Nuggets had no answer for him, and his ability to manipulate defenses is forcing teams to pick their poison.
Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren was also instrumental on defense, racking up four blocks and disrupting Denver’s interior offense. Holmgren’s presence in the paint is a significant advantage, and it will be interesting to see if he suits up for both games of this back-to-back after dealing with a pelvic injury earlier this season.
The Thunder have now won two of the first three meetings with Denver this season and have a chance to make a major statement by sweeping this two-game set at home.
Key Betting Trends for Oklahoma City:
- 7-game winning streak entering Monday’s game.
- SGA has 30+ points in 40 of 62 games this season.
- Oklahoma City is 18-7 ATS at home this season.
- The Thunder have hit the Over in 6 of their last 8 games.
Denver Nuggets
Denver is looking to bounce back after a disappointing fourth-quarter collapse on Sunday, where they let a tight game get out of hand in the final period. The Nuggets had kept things competitive for three quarters before Oklahoma City pulled away late.
Nikola Jokic, as always, was the bright spot for Denver, putting up 24 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists in another near-triple-double performance. The two-time MVP continues to dominate statistically, averaging 28.8 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game this season.
However, the Nuggets could be shorthanded once again. Aaron Gordon left Sunday’s game early with right calf tightness and didn’t return. This marks the third time he has dealt with calf issues this season, including a 10-game absence in November. His status for Monday is uncertain, and losing his versatility on both ends of the floor would be a big blow.
Head coach Michael Malone expressed frustration over his team’s lack of effort on 50-50 balls and stressed that Denver needs a full 48-minute performance to take down a team like Oklahoma City. If they can clean up those mistakes and get more offensive contributions outside of Jokic, they’ll have a shot at keeping this game closer than Sunday’s blowout.
Key Betting Trends for Denver:
- Haven’t lost back-to-back games since January.
- Jokic is averaging a triple-double this season.
- Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.
- The Nuggets have struggled from three-point range in recent games, which could be a problem against OKC’s strong perimeter defense.
Betting Prediction & Player Props
Oklahoma City showed in Sunday’s game why they are one of the top teams in the NBA, and it’s tough to bet against them at home in this rematch. With SGA playing at an MVP level, Holmgren anchoring the defense, and Denver potentially missing Aaron Gordon, the Thunder should have the edge once again.
Expect SGA to clear 30+ points again, while Jokic remains a strong bet for another triple-double given how much he has to carry Denver’s offense.
Best Bets:
✅ Oklahoma City Thunder -9.0 – OKC is clicking on all cylinders, and Denver’s inconsistent supporting cast may struggle again.
✅ Over 238.5 – Both teams have offensive firepower, and OKC’s pace should push this one to another high-scoring affair.
✅ SGA Over 34.5 Points – He’s on fire and has proven he can torch this Nuggets defense.
✅ Jokic Triple-Double (-120 or better odds) – If Denver is going to keep it close, Jokic will have to do everything.
Expect the Thunder to complete the two-game sweep in what could be another statement performance for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP campaign.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
