Cincinnati (17-14) vs Iowa State (23-8)
- When: Mar 12 2025, 12:30 PM
- Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Big 12 Tournament: Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Betting Preview
Spread: Iowa State -8.5 | Total: 136.5
Iowa State Cyclones Outlook
The No. 12-ranked Iowa State Cyclones are no strangers to deep tournament runs, having reached the Sweet 16 in two of the last three NCAA Tournaments. However, they enter the Big 12 tournament looking to regain momentum after dropping three of their last five games.
Iowa State (23-8) closed the regular season strong with a dominant 73-57 road win over Kansas State, but they now face a tough tournament path that could include a matchup with top-seeded Houston if they advance.
“One game at a time. That’s the focus. It’s win or go home,” said Tamin Lipsey, echoing the team’s locked-in mentality.
Cyclones coach T.J. Otzelberger believes his squad is built for the back-to-back grind of tournament play, citing their Maui Invitational experience in November, where they played three games in three days against top-tier competition.
The Cyclones’ balanced attack features five double-digit scorers, led by Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Curtis Jones. Their defense has been a staple all season, and they already handled Cincinnati once, winning 81-70 in Ames on Feb. 15.
Betting Trends & Predictions – Iowa State
Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site games
They have covered the spread in five of their last seven matchups against teams with a losing ATS record
Look for Iowa State’s defense to dictate the pace, making the under a strong consideration
Cincinnati Bearcats Outlook
Cincinnati was on the NCAA Tournament bubble heading into the final stretch of the season but collapsed late, losing five of their last seven regular-season games. They now need a miracle run in the Big 12 Tournament to keep their postseason hopes alive.
The Bearcats (18-14) delivered a statement win in the opening round, cruising past Oklahoma State 87-68, thanks to a dominant defensive effort that resulted in 18 steals.
Coach Wes Miller made it clear that Cincinnati is focused only on Iowa State and not looking ahead.
“This is a one-game tournament,” Miller said. “We were locked in on Oklahoma State, and now we shift our focus.”
Cincinnati had multiple standout performances in their first-round victory, including:
Josh Reed (Career-high 19 points)
Dillon Mitchell (18 points, Career-high 15 rebounds)
Day Day Thomas (Season-high 21 points, 6 steals)
Despite their strong defensive showing, Cincinnati will need an even better effort to upset Iowa State. The Bearcats struggled offensively in their previous matchup with the Cyclones and will have to avoid turnovers and get better production from Jizzle James to keep this one close.
Betting Trends & Predictions – Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games
The Bearcats have struggled against elite defenses, which could pose problems against Iowa State’s aggressive defense
If Cincinnati can replicate their defensive intensity from the first round, they could keep it close early before fading late
Betting Prediction
Iowa State has the talent, depth, and experience, while Cincinnati is playing their second game in as many days against a much tougher opponent. The Cyclones already beat the Bearcats by 11 earlier this season, and with Cincinnati struggling to string together wins, this should be another comfortable win for Iowa State.
Best Bet: Iowa State -8.5 – The Cyclones are rested, have a deeper roster, and should wear down Cincinnati over 40 minutes.
Total Lean: Under 136.5 – Iowa State’s defense should control the tempo, leading to a lower-scoring battle.
Expect the Cyclones to advance, covering the spread while limiting Cincinnati’s offense in a decisive win.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
