Wisconsin (25-8) vs Michigan State (27-5)
- When: Mar 15 2025, 1:00 PM
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview & Prediction
Spread: Michigan State -3.5 | Total: 144.5
The stakes are high as No. 7 Michigan State and No. 18 Wisconsin clash in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals on Saturday. Both teams are coming off impressive quarterfinal victories, but the biggest storyline will be Wisconsin’s hot shooting vs. Michigan State’s elite perimeter defense.
Wisconsin: Can the Hot Hand Stay Hot?
The Badgers (25-8) put on an absolute shooting clinic in their quarterfinal rout of UCLA, draining 19-of-32 three-pointers—tying a Big Ten Tournament record. However, expecting another near-60% performance from deep is unrealistic, especially against a Spartans defense that holds opponents to just 27.8% from beyond the arc.
John Tonge (19.1 PPG, 39.8% 3PT) was red-hot, hitting 6-of-6 from three against the Bruins, while Kamari McGee added three triples in the win. But even Wisconsin players know they can’t rely solely on the deep ball in this matchup.
“We can’t get too jump-shot happy,” McGee admitted. “Michigan State didn’t let us get inside last time. We need to attack the paint and play inside-out.”
Key Factor: Wisconsin struggled in its March 2 loss to Michigan State (71-62), where they shot just 5-of-32 from three (15.6%)—their worst percentage all season. The return of Max Klesmit (9.5 PPG) from injury gives them a more complete lineup, but they can’t afford another cold shooting night.
Michigan State: Peaking at the Right Time
The Spartans (27-5) have found their rhythm offensively, particularly from beyond the arc. After ranking near the bottom of the Big Ten in three-point shooting for much of the year, Michigan State hit 7-of-15 threes in its 74-64 win over Oregon on Friday and has gone 9-1 in its last 10 games, beating six AP Top 25 teams in that span.
Freshman Jase Richardson (16.9 PPG last 10 games) has emerged as a key offensive weapon, draining 3-of-7 from deep against Oregon. He’s now shooting 38.3% from three since moving into the starting lineup, and Michigan State is thriving because of it.
Head coach Tom Izzo praised Richardson’s impact, highlighting his high IQ and ability to make in-game adjustments. “He’s just very efficient and very intelligent,” Izzo said. “He understands when we get stagnant, he needs to make a play.”
Betting Prediction: Michigan State Covers & the Under Hits
This game comes down to whether Wisconsin can keep hitting threes at a historic rate or if Michigan State’s defense forces them into another inefficient night like the March 2 meeting. The Badgers won’t shoot 60% again, and the Spartans’ perimeter defense should cause enough problems to give them the edge.
Michigan State has momentum (9-1 in last 10 games)
Wisconsin’s three-point percentage is bound to regress
The Spartans’ defense will dictate the pace
Final call: Michigan State -3.5 & Under 144.5.
Expect a lower-scoring grind where the Spartans’ defense proves to be the difference-maker.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
