Golden State (0-0) at Houston (0-0)
- When: Apr 20 2025, 9:30 PM
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX, USA
- TV: TNT
NBA Playoffs First Round Preview: Warriors vs. Rockets Game 1
Spread: Golden State -1 | Total: 213
Houston Rockets Outlook
The new-look Rockets enter the postseason as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, a remarkable turnaround from years of rebuilding. They’ll open the series at home against a familiar playoff rival, though this Houston squad bears little resemblance to the James Harden-led groups that came up short against Golden State in the past.
Led by Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, and Alperen Sengun, the Rockets have evolved into a team defined by its defensive versatility and gritty edge. The acquisition of Amen Thompson has been huge—especially on the defensive end—and he played a key role in limiting Stephen Curry to just 3 points on 1-for-10 shooting in their most recent meeting.
Houston won that April 6 matchup 106-96 in Golden State, snapping the Warriors’ dominance and reminding the league that this team isn’t just young—it’s dangerous. Defensively, Ime Udoka has Houston switching, zoning, and grinding opponents with a level of physicality that could be a real problem for a finesse-based offense like the Warriors.
Player Props to Watch:
Fred VanVleet Over 13.5 points
Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 rebounds
Amen Thompson Over 5.5 assists
Betting Note: Houston has covered in 6 of its last 8 games and has shown an ability to lock down elite scorers. They match up well defensively and will aim to dictate tempo from the jump.
Golden State Warriors Outlook
The Warriors bring championship experience into this series, but they do so from the No. 7 seed, making this a steeper climb than previous playoff runs. Still, with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney anchoring the core, Golden State knows what it takes to win when it counts.
Golden State edged the regular-season series 3-2, but Houston has won two of the last three meetings, including the recent double-digit win where Curry was neutralized. Expect the Warriors to make adjustments—especially with Curry moving off the ball and Klay Thompson getting more touches early.
Jimmy Butler, acquired at the deadline, has added a toughness to Golden State’s wing rotation. While the Warriors may not fear the Rockets’ physicality, they’ll need better efficiency and poise than they showed in the last matchup.
Player Props to Watch:
Stephen Curry Over 25.5 points
Draymond Green Over 5.5 assists
Jimmy Butler Over 1.5 three-pointers made
Betting Note: The Warriors have covered in 4 of their last 5 road games and are no strangers to playoff battles. Expect them to push the tempo and test Houston’s poise in crunch time.
Prediction
This is a near pick’em for a reason. Houston’s defense and youthful legs may get the early edge, especially at home, but Golden State has playoff scars and battle-tested leaders. Expect a grind-it-out game with playoff energy from tip to buzzer.
Final Score Prediction: Rockets 108, Warriors 104
Pick: Rockets ML (-115)
Lean: Under 213
Best Prop Bet: Amen Thompson Over 1.5 Steals
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
