Ottawa (1-3) at Toronto (3-1)
- When: Apr 29 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON, CAN
- TV: ESPN
NHL Playoffs Game 5 – Senators vs Maple Leafs Preview
Moneyline: Maple Leafs -175 | Total: 5.5
Toronto Maple Leafs Outlook
The pressure is back in Toronto, despite holding a 3-1 series lead. The Maple Leafs are once again staring down a narrative they’re all too familiar with—closing out a playoff series. After dropping Game 4 in overtime, the Leafs have now lost 12 of their last 13 chances to seal a postseason series. But oddsmakers still like their chances at home on Tuesday as they enter Game 5 as solid -175 moneyline favorites.
Toronto actually played a dominant game on Saturday, outshooting Ottawa and controlling possession, but they couldn’t finish it off in OT. Head coach Craig Berube praised the team’s effort, noting their dominance in the second and third periods, where they allowed just four shots. Goalie Anthony Stolarz took his first loss in 12 appearances but remains confident in the team’s play. With Matthews and Tavares both expected in the lineup, the Leafs have the offensive depth to shake off the Game 4 loss and deliver a statement win.
Ottawa Senators Outlook
The Senators staved off elimination thanks to an overtime rocket from Jake Sanderson in front of their raucous home crowd. Ottawa’s youth showed poise under pressure, rallying for a dramatic 4-3 win that extended the series and gave them life heading back to Toronto.
Brady Tkachuk and David Perron led by example, and while the Senators were largely outplayed for long stretches, they capitalized on key moments—exactly what you need from an underdog team. This has been a growth series for Ottawa’s young core, and Game 4 showed they’re not just here to participate.
Still, Game 5 in Toronto is a tall order. The Senators are winless in regulation at Scotiabank Arena this season, and their road form has been inconsistent. If they’re going to extend the series again, they’ll need a near-flawless performance from goaltender Joonas Korpisalo and more discipline in their own end.
Betting Analysis & Score Prediction
The Leafs opened at -175 with the total at 5.5, and for good reason. Despite their late-series struggles, they’ve been the better team over the last two games and will have the crowd behind them for Game 5. Expect Toronto to come out with urgency, push the pace, and finally take care of business on home ice. Ottawa has shown grit, but they’re facing a far more experienced roster that knows the importance of not letting a young team hang around too long.
Final Score Prediction: Maple Leafs 4, Senators 2
Best Bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+153)
Lean: Over 5.5 (-117)
- NHL Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
