Golden State (3-1) at Houston (1-3)
- When: Apr 30 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX, USA
- TV: TNT
NBA Playoffs Game 5 Preview: Warriors vs Rockets
Spread: Houston -4.0 | Total: 204.0
Golden State Warriors (Lead Series 3-1):
Golden State enters Game 5 with the momentum and the series edge, riding a gutsy performance in Game 4 led by a revitalized Jimmy Butler. After missing Game 3 due to injury, Butler returned with purpose, tallying 27 points, 6 assists, and securing the game-sealing rebound in a clutch 109-106 win. He’s been the X-factor since arriving midseason and is thriving alongside Steph Curry and a battle-tested roster.
With Curry setting the tone and Butler bringing that needed edge, the Warriors are executing at both ends in crunch time. Their poise late in games has made the difference — they’re a +15 in fourth quarters of their three wins. Coach Steve Kerr knows this group can close, especially with veteran savvy on their side.
If Golden State can control tempo early and match Houston’s expected desperation, they’re in prime position to end the series on the road.
Houston Rockets (Trail Series 1-3):
Houston returns home on the brink of elimination, needing a complete 48-minute effort to survive. While their Game 2 blowout win showed their ceiling, the other games have been marred by inconsistency, missed free throws (35 total in the series), and poor execution in late-game moments. The young core of Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, and Amen Thompson is learning on the fly — often the hard way.
Coach Ime Udoka is trying to rally his squad, emphasizing that three of the four games were within reach late. But the mental lapses, especially down the stretch, have proved costly. For the Rockets to push this series back to San Francisco, they’ll need a mistake-free showing and more from their bench, which has been largely ineffective.
Game 5 Betting Outlook:
Golden State’s veteran edge and clutch play tilt the balance in their favor. With Houston laying -4, there’s solid value on the Warriors to cover or win outright. The total at 204 looks low given how close these games have been, but Golden State’s defensive focus and Houston’s inconsistent scoring suggest this could trend just under.
Prediction: Warriors (+145)
Total: Under 204.
Final Score: Warriors 103, Rockets 98
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
