Florida (0-0) at Toronto (0-0)
- When: May 5 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON, CAN
- TV: ESPN
NHL Playoffs Preview: Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1
Moneyline: Florida Panthers -125 | Total: 5.5
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Breakdown
Toronto’s power play was lethal all season, and it’s only gotten hotter in the postseason. The Leafs were tied for 8th in power-play conversion during the regular season (24.8%), and they’ve stepped it up in the playoffs with a blistering 35.3% success rate (6-for-17) through Round 1. Their top unit, featuring heavy hitters like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies, combined for 17 points on the man advantage alone.
That’s the kind of firepower bettors can’t ignore, especially with home-ice advantage in Game 1. After being eliminated by Florida in the second round last year, Toronto will be hungry for revenge—and this time, they come in more experienced and offensively dialed in.
Still, playoff history looms large. The Leafs haven’t advanced to a conference final since 2002, and facing Florida’s elite penalty kill could be their biggest obstacle yet.
Prediction outlook: The Leafs will test Florida’s penalty kill early, but whether their offense can break through 5-on-5 will determine the outcome.
Florida Panthers Betting Breakdown
Florida doesn’t just kill penalties—they erase them. The Panthers come in with the second-best penalty kill of the playoffs (88.9%) and were one of the NHL’s best shorthanded scoring threats in the regular season. While they’ve yet to strike short-handed in the postseason, players like Sam Reinhart (5 SHG in the regular season) and Gustav Forsling give the PK unit serious bite.
Florida enters this series aiming for a third straight trip to the Eastern Conference Final. Their playoff experience is now one of their biggest strengths, especially compared to a Toronto roster still finding its postseason identity. And although the Panthers dropped some veterans, they picked up a key asset in Brad Marchand at the deadline, who’s blended well with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen.
Their 5-on-5 game looked solid against Tampa, and they’ll look to stifle Toronto’s top scorers and make life tough in the neutral zone.
Prediction outlook: Expect Florida to slow the tempo, win the special teams battle, and edge out a close, physical Game 1 in Toronto.
Game 1 Final Prediction:
This opener has all the ingredients for a low-scoring, tightly contested tilt. Florida’s defensive structure and edge on the penalty kill give them the upper hand in a game that likely stays under the total of 5.5.
Best Bet: Panthers ML -125
Value Angle: Under 5.5 (-120)
Projected Final Score: Panthers 3, Maple Leafs 2
- NHL Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
