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Arizona (45-46) at San Diego (48-42)
- When: Jul 8 2025, 9:40 PM
- Where: PETCO Park, San Diego
- Where to watch: ARID
Diamondbacks vs Padres – Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Moneyline: San Diego -129
Total: 8.0
RunLine: San Diego -1.5 (+162)
Arizona Diamondbacks Outlook
After a rough 3-7 homestand and losing two key players pregame, Arizona flipped the script in San Diego on Monday with a gritty 6-3 win. Manager Torey Lovullo emphasized resilience after missing All-Star Ketel Marte (groin tightness) and closer Shelby Miller (forearm strain), who hit the IL. Despite the setbacks, Arizona’s top five hitters tallied eight of their nine hits, and a shaky bullpen held off the Padres late.
Merrill Kelly (7-4, 3.55 ERA) gets the nod Tuesday. He’s historically reliable against San Diego, posting a 3.57 ERA across 17 starts. However, he took the loss in a prior matchup with the Padres this season after allowing four runs in five innings. He’s been steady but not overpowering recently, tossing six frames of three-run ball in a no-decision vs. the Giants last week.
D-backs Prop Picks:
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases – If he returns to the lineup, his bat adds instant spark and he’s done damage vs. righties this season.
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Runs Scored – He’s a table-setter with speed, and with San Diego’s bullpen susceptible, he’s likely to cross the plate.
San Diego Padres Outlook
Monday was supposed to be celebratory in San Diego. Yu Darvish finally returned from a long elbow-related absence, and Manny Machado reached the 2,000-hit, 350-homer milestone, becoming just the 12th player ever to hit both by age 32. Instead, the Padres took the “L,” their bullpen letting things slip away after a shaky Darvish outing.
Nick Pivetta (9-2, 3.25 ERA) gets the ball Tuesday, and he’s been lights-out lately. He gave up just one run over six innings in a win at Philly last start and carved up Arizona earlier this season, holding them to two runs on two hits in a dominant seven-inning outing.
Padres Prop Picks:
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs – Fresh off a milestone, he’s been swinging a hot bat and is a reliable RBI threat in clutch spots.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases – His extra-base hit potential makes this a high-upside play against a familiar arm in Kelly.
Game Prediction & Betting Lean
San Diego holds the slight edge at home with Pivetta in form, but Arizona’s momentum from Monday and Kelly’s familiarity with the Padres make this one tighter than odds suggest. Look for the bats to show up for both sides.
Final Score Prediction: Padres 5, Diamondbacks 4
Lean: San Diego (-129)
Total: Over 8.0 (+100) – With both lineups producing and bullpens that can bend, expect some scoreboard traffic.
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
