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Phoenix (15-8) at New York (16-6)
- When: Jul 25 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY, USA
- TV: ION
WNBA Preview and Prediction: Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
Spread: New York -5.5 | Total: 171.5
New York Liberty Breakdown
The reigning WNBA champions are finally clicking again. After a mid-season skid where injuries derailed their hot 9-0 start, the Liberty (16-6) have bounced back with four straight wins. A major reason for this surge is the return of 6-foot-6 center Jonquel Jones, who dropped 18 points and nine rebounds in Tuesday’s 98-84 win over Indiana.
Jones, the 2021 MVP, has appeared in just 10 games this year but now rejoins the team’s dynamic duo of Breanna Stewart (19.6 PPG) and Sabrina Ionescu (18.4 PPG). The Liberty are deep and dangerous from beyond the arc, with four players shooting over 40% from three, including sharpshooter Leonie Fiebich (52.2%).
With their firepower back at full strength, New York aims to avenge its 0-2 record against Phoenix this season. Stewart has done her part, averaging 26 points in those matchups, but she’ll need support from Ionescu, who’s been held to 12.5 points per game against the Mercury.
Phoenix Mercury Breakdown
The Mercury (15-8) sit just 1.5 games behind New York in the standings but enter this matchup on a two-game skid. Phoenix’s recent struggles stem from injuries, though key players have started to return. Satou Sabally, who averaged 20 points and 7.5 rebounds in two earlier wins over the Liberty, is back after an ankle injury, while star guard Kahleah Copper recently returned from a hamstring issue.
Alyssa Thomas has been a nightmare for New York in the season series, averaging a triple-double line of 17.5 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists. Phoenix’s biggest challenge now is shaking off back-to-back poor shooting performances, where they’ve hit under 39% from the field.
Despite those offensive woes, Phoenix has proven it can match up well with the Liberty’s frontcourt. The question is whether they can bring the same energy on the road, especially against a New York team that looks rejuvenated.
WNBA Game Prediction
New York’s depth and recent form give them the upper hand, especially with Jones back to anchor the paint. Phoenix will keep it competitive early, but the Liberty’s home-court edge and scoring balance should prevail down the stretch.
Score Prediction: New York 88, Phoenix 80
Best Bet: New York -5.5
Total: Under 171.5
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
