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Houston (79-67) at Toronto (83-62)
- When: Sep 11 2025, 3:07 PM
- Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto
- Where to watch: MLB Network
Astros vs. Blue Jays – Game Betting Preview & Prediction
Moneyline: Toronto -156
Spread: Toronto -1.5 (+130)
Total: 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Outlook
The Blue Jays (83-62) enter Thursday’s rubber match looking to avoid another series defeat to Houston. They’ve dropped four of five to the Astros this season and continue to struggle in head-to-head play, losing eight of the past 10 meetings.
Kevin Gausman takes the mound with a 9-10 record and a 3.63 ERA. While he’s capable of shutting down elite lineups, his track record against Houston has been rocky. In eight career starts versus the Astros, he’s 3-5 with a 5.13 ERA, including an April outing where he surrendered four runs across six innings.
The bullpen hasn’t helped much either. Closer Jeff Hoffman has been a home run machine, giving up 15 bombs in just over 62 innings, 13 of them in the ninth or later. His latest blemish came when he served up Yainer Diaz’s game-winning homer Wednesday, a reminder of Toronto’s late-inning vulnerability.
Despite these issues, the Blue Jays remain in playoff position, but they’ll need sharper pitching if they want to keep their cushion in the AL standings.
Houston Astros Betting Outlook
The Astros (79-67) evened the series with a 3-2 win on Wednesday, powered by Diaz’s solo blast in the ninth inning. Diaz has been the spark Houston desperately needed, collecting five hits in the series and showing patience at the plate. Carlos Correa also reached a milestone, notching his 200th career homer to set the tone.
Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA) gets the ball for Houston. While his overall numbers this year haven’t been standout, he’s pitched fairly well against Toronto in the past, going 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in three career starts. With the Astros pushing to lock down a playoff berth, they’ll rely on Javier to keep them competitive on the road.
The lineup has leaned heavily on Yordan Alvarez, who went 2-for-4 Wednesday and is red-hot since returning from the injured list, hitting .449 with three home runs over 14 games. Meanwhile, Jose Altuve sat out Wednesday for rest and is expected back, though his recent struggles have been noticeable.
MLB Prediction & Betting Angle
The Blue Jays are favored at home with their ace on the mound, but Houston’s dominance in the head-to-head series looms large. Houston’s timely hitting and Toronto’s shaky bullpen tilt this one in the Astros’ favor, giving them a statement road series win.
Score Prediction: Astros 5, Blue Jays 4
Pick: Houston (+133)
Total: Over 8.5 (-105)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
