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New York (27-17) at Phoenix (27-17)
- When: Sep 14 2025, 5:00 PM
- Where: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: ESPN
First-Round WNBA Playoff Clash: New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
Spread: New York -2.5 | Total: 165.0
New York Liberty Betting Breakdown
The Liberty couldn’t have timed their health any better. After a season filled with lineup juggling, New York rolls into the playoffs with Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Emma Meesseman, and Sabrina Ionescu all available. That’s a rare luxury for coach Sandy Brondello, who had to use 18 different starting combinations during the year.
When the Liberty had their full core, they went 11-1, showing just how dominant this group can be when everyone is on the floor. Stewart and Ionescu both averaged over 18 points per game, while Jones and Natasha Cloud provided steady double-figure scoring. Ionescu, back from injury, dished 11 assists in the regular-season finale and thrives in big-game atmospheres.
For bettors, New York enters on a three-game winning streak, finally playing with cohesion and momentum. With their stars healthy, the Liberty look like a team ready to remind everyone why they’re defending champions.
Prediction for New York: Expect the Liberty to ride their balanced scoring and playoff-tested leadership to push the pace and control the tempo.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Breakdown
Phoenix may have stumbled into the playoffs with three straight losses, but don’t mistake that for weakness. The Mercury rested players knowing their seed was already locked, and now they’ll come in recharged. This team also has the psychological edge, having beaten New York three times in four meetings this year.
The catalyst? Alyssa Thomas. The MVP contender nearly averaged a triple-double against New York this season, feeding Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper with her elite passing. Phoenix also scorched the Liberty for 106 points back in June, showing they can outgun New York if their shooters get hot.
The big question is whether Phoenix’s offense can replicate that kind of efficiency in a playoff setting against a full-strength Liberty defense.
Prediction for Phoenix: If Thomas dominates the glass and Sabally stretches the floor with her shooting, Phoenix has a shot at pulling another upset.
WNBA Prediction & Betting Angle
New York’s depth and home-court energy in Game 1 should swing the series, but Phoenix won’t make it easy.
Score Prediction: New York 87, Phoenix 82
Best Bet: New York -2.5
Total: Over 165.0
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
