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Phoenix (0-1) at New York (1-0)
- When: Sep 17 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY, USA
- TV: ESPN
Phoenix vs New York – WNBA Playoffs Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: New York -2.5 | Total: 159.0
Phoenix Mercury Betting Outlook
The Mercury trail the series 0–1 after letting a golden chance slip in Game 1, falling 76–69 in overtime. Shooting just 32.5% from the floor doomed them, especially with Satou Sabally struggling mightily at 2-for-17 and 1-for-10 from deep. Monique Akoa Makani wasn’t much better, hitting only two of her 11 attempts.
Despite the rough showing from their starters, Phoenix’s bench kept them alive, outscoring New York’s reserves 21–2. Alyssa Thomas nearly carried them across the finish line with 14 points, nine boards, and eight assists but missed a layup in the final seconds of regulation that could have sealed it.
Head coach Nate Tibbetts knows his group lacks New York’s battle-tested experience, but he also recognizes they have the talent to force a winner-take-all Game 3 at home. If Sabally can find her rhythm and Thomas continues to stuff the stat sheet, the Mercury have a fighting chance.
Mercury Player Prop Pick: Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists – she facilitates nearly every possession and should continue creating opportunities for teammates.
New York Liberty Betting Outlook
The Liberty hold a 1–0 series lead but know they can’t afford another sloppy performance. They committed 21 turnovers in Game 1, 14 in the second half alone, yet still escaped thanks to Breanna Stewart’s 18 points and defensive effort.
Stewart’s health looms large after tweaking her left knee late in the opener. Imaging came back clean, but she’s a game-time decision. If she’s limited, New York will lean heavily on Jonquel Jones and Emma Meesseman, both of whom combined for just nine points in the first game.
Point guard Natasha Cloud stressed the “next woman up” mentality, and coach Sandy Brondello reminded her team that advancing requires focus, not just star power. The defending champions have been here before and thrive in pressure moments, that experience remains their edge.
Liberty Player Prop Pick: Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 rebounds – if Stewart isn’t 100%, Jones will need to control the glass.
Prediction & Betting Angle
The Liberty are favored by 2.5 points, with the total set at 159.0. Phoenix’s bench showed promise, but unless their starters bounce back from their dreadful shooting, the Mercury may not keep pace with a battle-tested Liberty squad.
Expect New York’s defense to lock in, and if Stewart suits up, her impact could tilt things further.
Best Bet: New York -2.5
Toral: Under 159.0
Final Score Prediction: New York 82, Phoenix 75
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
