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Bills vs Dolphins Odds, Expert Pick & Betting Preview

Expert Bills vs Dolphins betting breakdown with odds, matchup analysis, and prediction for Thursday’s AFC East showdown.

(Photo by Getty Images) Josh Allen
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Miami (0-2-0) at Buffalo (2-0-0)

  • When: Sep 18 2025, 8:15 PM
  • Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
  • Where to watch: Amazon Prime Video
  • Last Meeting: BUF 30-27, November 3rd, 2024

Miami vs Buffalo Preview & Prediction

Spread: Buffalo -13.0
Moneyline: Buffalo (-927)
Total: 49.5

Game Odds & Overview

The Buffalo Bills are heavy favorites (-13.0) heading into this AFC East clash, with the total set at 49.5 points. Buffalo looks dominant early in the season, while Miami stumbles into Week 3 needing answers on both sides of the ball.

Buffalo Bills Betting Outlook

Buffalo (2-0) has opened its season with a mix of late-game heroics and defensive dominance. After a wild comeback against Baltimore in Week 1, the Bills controlled the Jets with a 30-10 win.

Josh Allen remains the centerpiece, riding MVP form with his deep ball accuracy and ability to dissect defenses. He’s owned Miami in past meetings, boasting a 12-2 record against them with 37 touchdown passes, the most he’s thrown versus any opponent.

The Bills’ defense has also found its rhythm, allowing just 10 points last week while keeping Zach Wilson uncomfortable all game. That spells trouble for a Miami offense that’s still searching for its spark.

Player Prop to Watch (Bills): Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing TDs – Facing Miami’s struggling secondary, Allen’s history against the Dolphins makes this line worth monitoring.

Miami Dolphins Betting Outlook

Miami (0-2) heads into Buffalo under heavy scrutiny. Head coach Mike McDaniel is under fire after back-to-back losses to Indianapolis and New England, with questions swirling about play-calling and defensive breakdowns.

Defensively, the Dolphins have been dreadful, ranking near the bottom of the league in both yards and points allowed. Opponents have scored on 13 of 15 possessions not ending in kneel-downs, an alarming stat against a Bills team that punishes mistakes.

Offensively, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa needs to regain chemistry with his playmakers. The Dolphins averaged just 22.5 points through two games, well below expectations for a unit built around speed and explosiveness.

Player Prop to Watch (Dolphins): Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over 23.5 Yards – Even when Miami struggles, Hill’s speed creates one-play game-changers.

NFL Expert Prediction

Buffalo has momentum, firepower, and home-field dominance on its side. Miami looks lost on defense and inconsistent on offense, making this matchup feel lopsided. The Bills’ ability to control both pace and field position gives them the edge.

Final Score: Bills 34, Dolphins 17
Lean: Buffalo -13.0
Total: 
 Over 49.5 

2026 NBA Championship Odds

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