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Jets vs Dolphins MNF Expert Picks & Odds

Expert Monday Night Football betting preview with Jets vs Dolphins odds, picks & props.

(Photo by Getty Images) Tua Tagovailoa
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NY Jets (0-3-0) at Miami (0-3-0)

  • When: Sep 29 2025, 7:15 PM
  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
  • Where to watch: ESPN
  • Last Meeting: NYJ 32-20, January 5th, 2025

NY Jets vs Miami Preview & Prediction

Spread: Miami -3.0
Moneyline: Miami (-157)
Total: 44.5

Miami Dolphins Analysis

The Dolphins enter this primetime AFC East clash looking to avoid an 0-4 start for the first time since 2019. Head coach Mike McDaniel knows his group is capable of more than the record shows, but Miami’s issues on defense have been glaring. The Dolphins haven’t forced a turnover all season, largely because they’ve allowed opponents to stay comfortable on early downs and play low-risk football. Linebacker Jaelan Phillips emphasized that until Miami gets more disruptive up front, the lack of takeaways will continue to haunt them.

Offensively, Miami still has the firepower to overwhelm anyone. Explosive speed across the field and a quarterback with proven passing ability make them dangerous if they can avoid falling into a slow tempo. Receiver Malik Washington made it clear the Dolphins don’t just want to squeak by, they expect to dominate when things are clicking.

Player Prop Pick – Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
New York’s defense has been shaky in the red zone, and with Miami’s arsenal of speedsters, Tua should have multiple opportunities to cash this number.

New York Jets Analysis

The Jets nearly pulled off a 17-point comeback in Tampa last week, and first-year head coach Aaron Glenn is banking on that grit to help his team avoid its first 0-4 start since 2020. Glenn knows what Miami brings, speed and spacing and his defense must be disciplined to have a shot.

The biggest issue for New York has been painfully slow starts. The Jets haven’t scored an early touchdown in two straight games, forcing them to play from behind. Garrett Wilson admitted the offense only found rhythm once they were in desperation mode, something that simply can’t happen again under the lights Monday night.

Still, Glenn has his guys buying into the “dogfight” mentality. The Jets’ late rallies show they can move the ball when forced, but the key will be sustaining tempo from the opening drive.

Player Prop Pick – Jets: Garrett Wilson Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
Wilson has been the focal point of New York’s passing attack, and if the Jets are forced to chase points again, he should see enough volume to clear this line.

Prediction & Betting Angle

Both teams are fighting to stay out of the AFC East basement, which sets up a tense, hard-fought game. Miami has the more reliable offense and should control the pace if Tua gets into rhythm. The Jets’ inconsistency early in games is a real concern, especially against a Dolphins team eager to strike first.

Final Score:  Dolphins 24, Jets 17
Lean: Miami -3.0
Total: 
Under 44.5 

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