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Detroit (87-75) at Cleveland (88-74)
- When: Sep 30 2025, 1:08 AM
- Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
- Where to watch: ESPN
Detroit vs Cleveland MLB Playoff Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Detroit -168
Spread: Detroit -1.5 (+120)
Total: 6.0
Cleveland Guardians Analysis
Cleveland secured the AL Central by a single game, setting up a postseason clash with Detroit for the second straight year. The Guardians enter Game 1 with Gavin Williams (12-5, 3.06 ERA) on the mound, a young right-hander who’s been sharp against Detroit with a 1.88 ERA in seven career starts.
Cleveland has had the Tigers’ number recently, winning eight of 13 regular-season meetings, including five of the last six down the stretch to clinch the division. Their confidence comes not only from results but also from the balance across their roster, which manager Stephen Vogt has leaned on all season.
While they don’t bring overwhelming power to the plate, the Guardians’ ability to grind out at-bats and manufacture runs has been a steady formula, and they’ll look to replicate that against Skubal in front of a raucous home crowd.
Detroit Tigers Analysis
Detroit enters as the betting favorite despite finishing just behind Cleveland in the standings. That nod goes to ace left-hander Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA), who is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season. He’s handled Cleveland reasonably well across his career, though his postseason history includes struggles against this very opponent in last year’s ALDS.
The Tigers’ path to victory lies in Skubal setting the tone and their offense capitalizing on limited opportunities against Cleveland’s bullpen. Detroit is just 5-8 head-to-head this year against the Guardians, so discipline at the plate and timely hitting are critical if they’re going to flip the script this October.
Manager A.J. Hinch has yet to announce the Game 2 starter, leaving open whether it will be Jack Flaherty or Casey Mize. Depth questions remain, but Detroit will trust Skubal to tilt Game 1 in their favor and put pressure on Cleveland early in the series.
Prediction & Betting Angle
This matchup has all the makings of a tight, low-scoring playoff opener. The total at 6.0 reflects the expectation of a pitcher’s duel between Williams and Skubal.
Detroit’s ace is the difference-maker, and with the Tigers listed as -164 favorites, oddsmakers see them seizing early control. Given Cleveland’s recent success against Detroit but Skubal’s ability to dominate, this looks like a razor-thin margin decided by run prevention.
Score Prediction: Tigers 3, Guardians 2
Pick: Cleveland +1.5 (-140)
Total: Under 6.0 (-115)
- MLB Playoff Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
