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San Diego (90-72) at Chi. Cubs (92-70)
- When: Sep 30 2025, 3:08 PM
- Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago
- Where to watch: ABC
San Diego vs Chi. Cubs MLB Playoff Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Chi. Cubs -117
Spread: Chi. Cubs -1.5 (+195)
Total: 7.0
Chicago Cubs Analysis
The Cubs enter October on a surge, led by Seiya Suzuki’s power revival. After a long drought, Suzuki smashed five homers in the last four games, fueling a streak of confidence throughout Chicago’s lineup. Add Nico Hoerner’s hot September bat and Pete Crow-Armstrong’s recent pop, and the offense appears to be peaking at just the right time.
On the mound, veteran Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA) gets the Game 1 assignment. He’s no stranger to October, logging a sub-1.00 ERA in limited postseason action last year. Across 31 starts this season, he’s provided steady innings and reliability for Craig Counsell’s rotation. Boyd also handled San Diego effectively earlier this year, holding them to just two runs over a pair of starts.
Chicago will need its offense to carry the recent momentum while Boyd keeps the Padres’ big bats under wraps.
San Diego Padres Analysis
The Padres come in after back-to-back 90-win seasons, showing rare consistency for the franchise. Manager Mike Shildt has this group believing they can make a deep run, and they’ll turn to Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA) to set the tone.
Pivetta split two outings against Chicago back in April. He was hit hard in Wrigley once but bounced back with six strong innings at home. Overall, he’s been one of San Diego’s most reliable arms this season, though his postseason résumé is thin.
The Padres have the star power and balance to challenge Chicago, but their lineup needs to strike early against Boyd to shift pressure onto the Cubs.
Prediction & Betting Angle
Both teams enter in good form, but the Cubs’ lineup is red-hot and Boyd’s consistency gives them a steadier Game 1 outlook. The Padres have the depth to fight back later in the series, but Chicago has the advantage in the opener.
Score Prediction: Cubs 4, Padres 3
Pick: Chi. Cubs (-117)
Total: Over 6.5 (-145)
- MLB Playoff Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
