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Texas (3-1) at Florida (1-3)
- When: Oct 4 2025, 3:30 PM
- Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
- Where to watch: ESPN
- Last Meeting: Texas 49-17, November 9th, 2024
(9) Texas vs Florida Preview & Prediction
Spread: Texas -5.5
Moneyline: Texas (-210)
Total: 42.5
Texas Longhorns: Defense-First Mindset Ready for SEC Road Test
Texas heads into Gainesville riding a three-game winning streak and showcasing one of the top defenses in college football. Now ranked No. 9 in the nation, the Longhorns have steamrolled non-conference opponents since a tight Week 1 loss to Ohio State.
Quarterback Arch Manning looked sharp in their 55-0 demolition of Sam Houston, throwing for 309 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for two more. With that kind of offensive ceiling and a defense that has surrendered just 31 points all season, Texas has both the tools and confidence to take on its first true road test of the SEC slate.
Steve Sarkisian has his group well-prepped on both sides of the ball, and there’s little evidence the team’s been holding back. Their defense currently ranks second nationally in scoring (7.8 points per game) and fourth in total yardage allowed (211.0 yards per game). That’s elite, and it travels.
The biggest challenge for Texas will be staying disciplined in a hostile environment, but with their talent edge and balanced play on both sides, they’re primed to cover the number.
Florida Gators: Searching for Answers Amid Offensive Struggles
Florida enters this matchup struggling to find offensive rhythm, having lost three straight and managing just one touchdown in last week’s 26-7 loss to Miami. The Gators were completely outmatched offensively, going 0-for-13 on third downs and producing only 141 total yards.
Quarterback DJ Lagway has shown flashes but hasn’t been able to generate consistent production. He threw for just 61 yards in their last outing and the Gators’ offense now ranks second to last in the SEC in total yardage (328.3 YPG). With only three total touchdowns in their last three games, the problems run deep.
Head coach Billy Napier knows his squad has work to do, especially with a ranked opponent coming to town. Florida’s defense has done its part at times, but with the offense sputtering, it’s hard to envision them keeping pace with a focused and physically dominant Texas squad.
Final Prediction: Texas Covers, Under in Play
Texas has the better quarterback play, a vastly superior defense, and momentum heading into SEC competition. Florida’s inefficiency on offense is too glaring to ignore. Back the Longhorns to cover the -5.5 and expect a grind-it-out game that stays under the 42.5 total.
Final Score: Texas 24, Florida 13
Lean: Texas -5.5
Total: Under 42.5
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
