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Seattle (0-0) at Toronto (0-0)
- When: Oct 12 2025, 8:03 PM
- Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto
- Where to watch: FOX
Seattle vs Toronto ALCS Game 1 Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Toronto -165
Spread: Toronto -1.5 (+110)
Total: 8.5
Seattle Mariners: Riding an Emotional High
Fresh off a 15-inning thriller that drained hearts and bullpens alike, the Seattle Mariners limp, figuratively and maybe literally into Toronto for the ALCS opener. Their 3-2 win over Detroit on Friday night was equal parts marathon, chaos, and triumph.
Seattle emptied nearly the entire pitching staff in that game, using seven arms, including three starters to claw their way to victory. Now, Bryce Miller (0-0, 4.15 ERA) gets the unenviable task of starting Game 1 on short rest.
Miller’s past against the Blue Jays? Let’s just say it’s not the stuff of highlight reels. He’s 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in two starts against Toronto, including one rough outing this season where he surrendered seven runs in five innings. But with Bryan Woo still questionable due to pectoral inflammation, Miller’s the best option Seattle’s got.
Manager Dan Wilson remains optimistic. “He didn’t throw a ton of pitches last time out,” Wilson said. “He’s ready to compete, and this team’s got momentum.”
The Mariners travel often, so a quick turnaround to the East Coast shouldn’t faze them. What might, however, is Toronto’s offense, especially in their own hitter-friendly ballpark. Seattle’s bullpen will have to find a way to keep the ball in the yard if they want to steal Game 1.
Toronto Blue Jays: Rested, Ready, and Dangerous
While Seattle’s recovering from a 15-inning dogfight, Toronto has been lounging, scouting, and quietly prepping for this moment. The Blue Jays wrapped up their ALDS in four games, toppling the Yankees 5-2 on Wednesday. They now get home-field advantage and a fully rested ace in Kevin Gausman (1-0, 1.59 ERA).
Gausman knows the Mariners well, sometimes too well. He’s 2-4 lifetime against them with a 2.94 ERA, but his postseason record hasn’t been spotless. If his splitter is working, though, he could make short work of Seattle’s lineup.
The big question for Toronto is shortstop Bo Bichette, who’s been sidelined with a knee injury since early September. He’s been running bases and taking swings, but his Game 1 status remains up in the air. Manager John Schneider hinted that the team could tweak its ALCS roster, possibly bringing back Max Scherzer or Chris Bassitt to bolster the rotation.
“We’ve got our options,” Schneider said. “It’s a long series, and we’ll be ready.”
ALCS Game 1 Prediction & Betting Angle
Seattle’s bullpen fatigue and travel catch up to them in Game 1. Gausman’s control and Toronto’s bats do just enough to handle a gritty but tired Mariners squad. Expect the Jays to capitalize late, taking the opener at home and setting the tone for the ALCS.
Score Prediction: Blue Jays 5, Mariners 3
Pick: Toronto -1.5 (+110)
Total: Under 8.5 (-115)
- MLB Playoff Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
