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Missouri (6-1) at Vanderbilt (6-1)
- When: Oct 25 2025, 3:30 PM
- Where: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
- Where to watch: ESPN
- Last Meeting: Missouri 30-27, September 21st, 2024
(15) Missouri vs (10) Vanderbilt Preview & Prediction
Spread: Vanderbilt -3.0
Moneyline: Vanderbilt (-150)
Total: 52.5
It’s an SEC showdown with some unexpected star power as the No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores host the 15th-ranked Missouri Tigers in Nashville. Both teams are 6-1, and both believe this game could define their season — or ruin it.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Analysis
Vanderbilt’s rise from an SEC afterthought to a legitimate top-10 program has been fueled by quarterback Diego Pavia, who’s become the face of the Commodores’ turnaround. The New Mexico State transfer has been nearly unstoppable this fall, throwing for 15 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and taking only five sacks in 183 dropbacks.
Last week’s 31-24 win over LSU showed why Pavia is climbing the Heisman charts, two rushing touchdowns, one through the air, and plenty of chaos for LSU’s defense. With an offensive line that’s allowed the fewest pressures in the conference and a ground game averaging 6.3 yards per carry, Vanderbilt’s balance is lethal.
Coach Clark Lea’s defense isn’t elite, but it’s opportunistic, forcing timely turnovers and limiting explosive plays. The Commodores’ challenge will be containing Missouri’s rushing attack without overcommitting and letting Beau Pribula beat them deep.
Prediction angle: Vanderbilt thrives at home with a potent dual-threat offense that’s hard to plan for on short notice. Expect Pavia to keep the Tigers’ defense guessing.
Missouri Tigers Betting Analysis
Missouri, meanwhile, enters this game looking to crash the SEC’s top tier. The Tigers rebounded from a tough loss to Alabama by outlasting Auburn 23-17 in double overtime, thanks to quarterback Beau Pribula’s clutch 3-yard rushing score.
Pribula’s performance was uneven, two interceptions, three sacks but his 252 passing yards showed resilience. Missouri’s running game, however, sputtered at Auburn with just 91 yards on 44 carries. That must improve if they want to control tempo against a high-octane Vanderbilt offense.
The Tigers’ defense remains aggressive, led by Zion Young, who recorded two sacks and earned SEC co-defensive lineman of the week honors. He’ll be tasked with slowing down Pavia’s improvisational magic, something few defenses have accomplished this season.
Prediction angle: Missouri’s physical defense can keep this tight early, but Vanderbilt’s offensive efficiency and home-field edge should tilt this in their favor late.
Final Score Prediction
Expect fireworks, quarterback scrambles, and a lot of SEC chaos, the perfect recipe for a Nashville thriller.
Final Score: Vanderbilt 31, Missouri 27
Lean: Vanderbilt -3.0
Total: Over 52.5
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
