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Alabama (9-2) at Auburn (5-6)
- When: Nov 29 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
- Where to watch: ABC
- Last Meeting: Alabama 28-14, November 30th, 2024
(10) Alabama vs Auburn Preview & Prediction
Spread: Alabama -5.5
Moneyline: Alabama (-238)
Total: 46.5
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Breakdown
Alabama enters this Iron Bowl with the stakes shoved right in their faces. At 9 and 2, the Crimson Tide can secure a spot in the SEC championship and position themselves squarely inside the College Football Playoff picture with a win. Lose, and everything evaporates. Title game gone. Playoff dreams gone. And the second straight year of heartbreak under Kalen DeBoer becomes reality.
DeBoer has embraced the weight of the rivalry. He knows exactly how much this game means to the state and to the program. His first Iron Bowl went well with a double digit win last year, but even that was not enough to earn a CFP berth. This time, the margin is razor thin.
Alabama bounced back last week by demolishing Eastern Illinois with eight rushing touchdowns, but that masked the struggles of quarterback Ty Simpson, who delivered his worst outing of the year. Turnovers have crept in, and the Tide need cleaner execution against an Auburn defense that actually ranks in the upper half of the SEC. If Simpson stabilizes and the run game stays hot, Alabama should control the pace and justify the 5.5 point spread.
Alabama Player Prop Pick: Ty Simpson Over 272.5 Total Passing Yards – He has struggled lately but should see volume against an Auburn defense geared to slow the run.
Auburn Tigers Betting Breakdown
Auburn enters at 5 and 6 and needs this game for bowl eligibility, adding even more spice to an already boiling rivalry. Interim coach DJ Durkin has squeezed everything he can out of the defense, and that side of the ball is the primary reason the Tigers have stayed competitive. In SEC play they sit sixth in scoring defense and hold their own in yardage allowed. The problem is the offense, which has been stuck in neutral most of the year.
Quarterback Deuce Knight flashed signs of excitement last week, but Ashton Daniels returns as the starter after Auburn preserved his eligibility. Daniels has been efficient and dangerous as a runner, giving Auburn a dual threat element that could soften Alabama’s aggressive defensive front. Still, the Tigers’ offense ranks near the bottom of the conference, and generating explosive plays against Alabama is no easy task.
Durkin is approaching the matchup with nothing to lose. Auburn has not won this rivalry in years, and playing spoiler on their home field would rewrite the mood of the entire season. To compete with the 5.5 point spread, Auburn must extend drives, lean on defensive disruption and hope for a messy, low scoring environment.
Auburn Player Prop Pick: Ashton Daniels Over 46.5 Total Rushing Yards – His mobility is Auburn’s best chance at breaking Alabama’s containment and moving the chains.
Expert Prediction & Betting Angle
Auburn’s defense will land punches early, but Alabama’s depth and superior trench play should win the long game. The Tide avoid another rivalry scare and punch their ticket to Atlanta.
Final Score: Alabama 27, Auburn 17
Lean: Alabama -5.5
Total: Under 46.5
- NCAA Football Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
