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Miami (6-7-0) at Pittsburgh (7-6-0)
- When: Dec 15 2025, 8:15 PM
- Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
- Where to watch: ESPN
- Last Meeting: MIA 16-10, October 23rd, 2022
Miami vs Pittsburgh Preview & Prediction
Spread: Pittsburgh -3.0
Moneyline: Pittsburgh (-180)
Total: 42.5
Miami Dolphins
Miami enters this matchup playing with house money and a whole lot of momentum. A few weeks ago, this season looked cooked beyond recognition. Now the Dolphins have rattled off four straight wins and suddenly resemble a team that remembered how football is supposed to work. The offense has tightened up, the defense has stopped leaking explosive plays, and the overall vibe has shifted from panic to belief.
Tua Tagovailoa has been steady rather than spectacular, but that has been enough during this win streak. Miami has leaned into rhythm passing, quick decisions, and limiting mistakes, which is exactly how you survive as a road underdog. The issue is that this style does not always travel well, especially against a physical Pittsburgh defense that loves turning games ugly.
From a betting standpoint, Miami catching three points is tempting given their recent form, but the Dolphins still struggle when games slow down and become trench battles. That matters against a Steelers team perfectly comfortable winning by grinding the clock and forcing errors.
Player Prop Pick Miami: Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh lives in the chaos and seems to thrive there. Every season feels like a referendum on Mike Tomlin, and every season he somehow keeps stacking wins. The Steelers might not dominate opponents, but they are incredibly good at surviving them.
After a midseason slump, Pittsburgh responded the only way it knows how by winning a gritty road game against Baltimore. The passing game finally showed life, stretching the field and adding balance to an offense that had become painfully predictable. When Pittsburgh can threaten vertically, everything else opens up, including the run game and play action opportunities.
Defensively, the Steelers remain physical, disciplined, and opportunistic. They rarely beat themselves, which is huge when laying points at home. As favorites by three, this feels like a classic Pittsburgh spot where they control tempo, shorten the game, and squeeze out a win without ever pulling away comfortably.
Player Prop Pick Pittsburgh: DK Metcalf over 53.5 receiving yards
Betting Outlook and Prediction
With Pittsburgh favored by 3.0 and the total sitting at 42.5, this shapes up as a lower scoring, possession based game. Miami will fight early and keep things close, but Pittsburgh’s ability to adjust and close games gives them the edge late. The total feels about right, though Pittsburgh controlling pace makes the under slightly more appealing.
Final Score: Steelers 23, Dolphins 17
Lean: Pittsburgh -3.0
Total: Under 42.5
- NFL Football Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
