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Houston (16-6) at Denver (18-6)
- When: Dec 15 2025, 9:30 PM
- Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO, USA
- TV: ALT
Houston vs Denver Preview & Prediction
Spread: Denver -1.5
Moneyline: Denver (-115)
Total: 236.5
Denver Nuggets Betting Breakdown
Denver finally gets back home, even though home court has felt more like a haunted house lately. The Nuggets have dropped four straight in their own building, which is bizarre considering they have been unstoppable everywhere else. Eleven consecutive road wins tells you this team is still elite, just oddly allergic to the comforts of Ball Arena right now.
Injuries have forced Denver to shuffle the deck, but the results have not suffered. With Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun sidelined, younger pieces have stepped into bigger roles and kept the machine running. That matters from a betting standpoint because it shows depth and adaptability, two things you want when laying a short number.
Of course, everything still runs through Nikola Jokic. He is doing Nikola Jokic things again, stuffing the stat sheet nightly and controlling the game at his own pace. Jamal Murray has also been sharp, shooting efficiently and providing consistent scoring punch. When those two are clicking, Denver usually finds a way to win regardless of venue.
As a one and a half point favorite, this feels like a correction spot. Denver already beat Houston once on the road and should be motivated to snap the home skid before it becomes a narrative.
Player Prop Pick Denver: Nikola Jokic over 28.5 points – Jokic remains the engine of everything Denver does offensively, especially at home where the Nuggets look to reassert control.
Houston Rockets Betting Breakdown
Houston enters quietly hot, winning 11 of its last 14 games and playing some of its best basketball of the season. The offense is balanced, the ball moves well, and multiple players can step up on any given night. That makes them dangerous as a short underdog, especially against a team dealing with lineup changes.
Kevin Durant continues to lead the scoring, while Alperen Sengun gives Houston a strong interior presence and reliable production on the glass. The Rockets are not afraid of high tempo games, which fits well with a total sitting at 236.5. They also benefit from extended rest, having played just once over the last nine days.
If Tari Eason returns, Houston gets an energy boost on both ends of the floor. His ability to rebound, defend, and score opportunistically adds another layer to a roster that already has depth. Houston may not dominate stretches, but they stay competitive and punish mistakes.
Player Prop Pick Houston: Alperen Sengun over 9.5 rebounds – Sengun thrives in high tempo matchups where there are plenty of shot attempts on both ends. With the total sitting high, missed shots should translate into extra rebounding chances.
NBA Final Score & Expert Prediction
Denver favored by 1.5 reflects respect for Houston’s recent run, but Denver still owns the matchup edge. Expect a fast paced game with scoring runs on both sides. Houston should keep it close early, but Denver’s execution late and Jokic’s control in crunch time give the Nuggets the upper hand.
The total leans high, and both teams have the offensive firepower to push this into the upper 230s. Still, Denver’s defense at home usually tightens late.
Final Score: Nuggets 122, Rockets 117
Lean: Denver -1.5
Total: Over 236.5
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
