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Louisville (9-1) vs Tennessee (7-3)
- When: Dec 16 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(11) Louisville vs (20) Tennessee Preview & Prediction
Spread: Tennessee -2.0
Moneyline: Tennessee (-135)
Total: 158.0
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Breakdown
Tennessee returns home desperate for a reset and the timing could not be better. The Volunteers have not played in nearly two weeks and enter this matchup on a three game slide, but Thompson Boling Arena has been a fortress. Tennessee has not lost a nonconference home game in years, and that matters when laying a short number like minus two.
Lineup changes headline the bounce back attempt. Freshman DeWayne Brown II steps into the starting five, a move based more on reliability than box score production. Tennessee has been searching for steadiness after some uneven performances, and the coaching staff wants effort and execution to replace flashes and mistakes.
The Volunteers have struggled at the free throw line recently, which has cost them momentum in tight games. That is a concern when the total is set at 158.0 and possessions matter. Still, Tennessee’s size and physicality inside should set the tone, especially at home. When they control the paint and rebound, their defensive pressure usually leads to transition scoring and extended runs.
From a betting standpoint, Tennessee fits the profile of a team primed to respond. Long rest, home court, and a modest spread create a strong buy low opportunity.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Breakdown
Louisville arrives in Knoxville playing confident basketball and scoring efficiently. The Cardinals have won two straight and are coming off a dominant offensive showing where the ball moved freely and perimeter shots dropped at a high rate. That level of shooting will be harder to replicate against Tennessee’s physical defense, especially on the road.
Louisville’s lone loss this season came in a game where foul trouble and free throws swung the outcome. That experience is relevant here, as Tennessee thrives on contact and interior pressure. The Cardinals have added more frontcourt depth recently, which should help absorb the physicality, but discipline will be critical.
The backcourt matchup is a strength for Louisville. Their senior guards provide scoring punch and composure, and the presence of an elite freshman playmaker adds another layer to the offense. If Louisville can avoid turnovers and limit trips to the line, they have the tools to keep this game close.
Prediction and Betting Outlook
With Tennessee favored by 2.0 and the total at 158.0, this shapes up as a fast paced but physical game. Expect intensity early as Tennessee looks to reestablish identity at home. Louisville will score, but Tennessee’s defense and rebounding should wear them down over forty minutes.
Lean toward Tennessee to cover in a close but controlled home win, with scoring landing slightly under the total.
Final Score: Tennessee 80, Louisville 76
Lean: Tennessee -2.0
Total: Under 158.0
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
