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Memphis (8-4) at North Carolina State (7-5)
- When: Dec 19 2025, 2:30 PM
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- Where to watch: ESPN
Memphis vs North Carolina State Preview & Prediction
Spread: NC State -3.5
Moneyline: NC State (-175)
Total: 57.0
North Carolina State Wolfpack Breakdown
North Carolina State heads into the Gasparilla Bowl with momentum that actually matters. The Wolfpack closed the regular season strong, winning three of their final four games and finishing 7–5. That late push has clearly changed the tone around the program, especially with a chance to carry positive energy into the offseason.
The Wolfpack handled Florida State and North Carolina to end the year, and those wins were not just cosmetic. NC State played cleaner football, limited mistakes, and leaned into a balanced offensive approach. Quarterback CJ Bailey has not committed beyond this game, but motivation is not an issue. He wants a bowl win, and the team has responded to that urgency.
Running back Hollywood Smothers adds a big play element that matters in a bowl setting. His speed forces defenses to respect the perimeter and opens up chunk gains when lanes appear. NC State’s defense should also feel confident against a Memphis offense that leans heavily on quarterback runs and option looks.
With preparation time shortened due to the early bowl date, NC State benefits from stability. Same staff, same system, same expectations. That consistency matters when spreads are tight.
Memphis Tigers Breakdown
Memphis enters this bowl under very different circumstances. The Tigers finished 8–4, but November completely unraveled them. A three game losing streak ended any postseason momentum, and a coaching change followed shortly after. Interim coach Reggie Howard takes over after Ryan Silverfield’s departure, and this will be his first game running the program.
Quarterback Brendon Lewis remains the engine of the offense. He is dangerous as a runner and capable enough through the air to keep defenses honest. If Memphis stays competitive, it will be because Lewis extends plays and turns broken structure into first downs. Wide receiver Cortez Braham Jr. is the clear top target and will be leaned on heavily.
The issue for Memphis is transition. Bowl games often punish teams dealing with staff changes, portal exits, and uncertain roles. With a run heavy quarterback and limited margin for error, falling behind early could force Memphis out of its comfort zone.
Betting Outlook and Prediction
North Carolina State enters as a 3.5 point favorite, and the number makes sense. The Wolfpack bring stability, late season form, and fewer distractions. Memphis has upside but also volatility.
With the total set at 57.0, expect some scoring, but not chaos. NC State’s balance and ability to control tempo should show as the game settles.
Final Score: NC State 31, Memphis 24
Lean: NC State -3.5
Total: Under 57.0
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
