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New Mexico (9-3) at Minnesota (7-5)
- When: Dec 26 2025, 4:30 PM
- Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- Where to watch: ESPN
New Mexico vs Minnesota Preview & Prediction
Spread: Minnesota -1.5
Moneyline: Minnesota (-124)
Total: 43.5
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Breakdown
Minnesota treats bowl season like unfinished business, not a consolation prize. Under P.J. Fleck, the Gophers have turned these games into a yearly statement, going a perfect 6 0 in bowls during his tenure. That mindset carries into this Rate Bowl matchup in Phoenix, where Minnesota aims to close the season with momentum and reinforce its physical identity.
At 7 5, the Gophers rely on balance and discipline rather than flash. Fleck’s teams are built to control tempo, lean on the run game, and win at the line of scrimmage. Extra practices matter here, and Minnesota consistently uses bowl prep to sharpen execution and set a foundation for the following season. That long term focus often shows up in clean, mistake free football when it counts.
Playing indoors at Chase Field also benefits Minnesota’s methodical approach, removing weather variables and putting the spotlight on fundamentals. If the Gophers establish early control on the ground and limit big mistakes, they put themselves in position to dictate how this game unfolds.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Breakdown
New Mexico enters this bowl riding confidence and momentum. The Lobos are 9 3 and have won six straight games, earning their first bowl appearance since 2016 and their first out of state bowl trip in nearly two decades. Under first year head coach Jason Eck, this group has embraced physical play and resilience, proven by a double overtime win to close the regular season.
The Lobos already own a road win against a Big Ten opponent this year, a dominant performance that showed they are not intimidated by Power Conference competition. A victory here would deliver a 10 win season and elevate the program’s profile significantly.
That said, this matchup presents a major challenge up front. New Mexico must hold its ground in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Sustaining drives, protecting the quarterback, and avoiding long third downs will be critical. If the Lobos fall behind early, playing catch up against a disciplined Minnesota defense becomes difficult.
Expert Prediction & Betting Angle
This matchup profiles as a tight, physical contest with contrasting styles. Minnesota’s bowl experience, structure, and consistency give them a slight edge against a New Mexico team fueled by emotion and momentum. Expect a slower pace, field position battles, and limited explosive plays.
Final Score: Minnesota 23, New Mexico 20
Lean: Minnesota -1.5
Total: Under 43.5
- NCAA Football Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
