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Louisville (14-5) vs Duke (18-1)
- When: Jan 26 2026, 7:00 PM
- Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(23) Louisville vs (5) Duke Preview & Prediction
Spread: Duke -7.5
Moneyline: Duke (-330)
Total: 157.0
Louisville Cardinals Betting Breakdown
Louisville heads into Durham with momentum and a much needed boost after getting its top offensive weapon back in the lineup. The Cardinals looked far more balanced and confident in their most recent outing, and the timing could not be better with one of the toughest road tests in college basketball on deck.
Offensively, Louisville is at its best when it can play freely and push tempo, especially when spacing opens up driving lanes. That rhythm was clearly present in the last game, but sustaining it against elite competition is a different challenge. Defensively, the Cardinals have struggled to maintain physicality for a full forty minutes, especially against teams that dominate inside.
The road environment will test Louisville’s composure. Duke punished them in the second half of the first meeting, and avoiding another extended scoring drought is critical if they want to stay competitive. From a betting perspective, Louisville has upside with its full rotation available, but trusting them to close the gap late against a disciplined home favorite is risky.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Breakdown
Duke continues to look like one of the most complete teams in the country. The Blue Devils have rolled through conference play with a combination of interior dominance, efficient scoring, and relentless rebounding. Their ability to win games without relying solely on perimeter shooting gives them a high floor every night.
At home, Duke’s physical edge becomes even more pronounced. They consistently control the paint, generate extra possessions, and wear opponents down with depth and pressure. That formula worked perfectly in the first meeting, where Duke flipped the game after halftime and never looked back.
The Blue Devils are also extremely comfortable playing fast or slow, depending on game flow. If Louisville tries to speed things up, Duke has the athletes to keep pace. If the game slows, Duke’s half court execution and size advantage tilt the matchup even further in their favor.
For bettors, Duke laying points at home makes sense given their consistency and ability to separate late.
Prediction and Betting Outlook
Louisville should be more competitive with a healthier lineup, but Duke’s interior control and rebounding edge remain decisive factors. Expect Louisville to hang around early before Duke gradually creates distance in the second half. The spread is playable with the Blue Devils at home, while the total leans slightly under if Duke dictates pace and limits transition opportunities.
Final Score: Duke 82, Louisville 72
Lean: Duke -7.0
Total: Under 157.0
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
