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Iowa State (21-2) vs TCU (14-9)
- When: Feb 10 2026, 9:00 PM
- Where: Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX, USA
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
(5) Iowa State vs TCU Preview & Prediction
Spread: Iowa State -7.0
Moneyline: Iowa State (-323)
Total: 147.5
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Breakdown
Iowa State enters Fort Worth ranked fifth nationally, laying 7 points with the total set at 147.5. The Cyclones are 21 and 1 overall and 8 and 2 in Big 12 play, and they continue to win even when the finish gets messy.
In their 72 to 69 win over Baylor, Iowa State built a strong second half lead before nearly letting it slip away. The Cyclones survived thanks to defense and timely execution. Tamin Lipsey once again filled up the stat sheet with 14 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two steals. His defensive pressure helped hold Baylor to 29.4 percent from three after halftime.
This team wins with toughness and perimeter defense. They do not always dominate the scoreboard late, but they consistently control stretches of games. Against a TCU team that has struggled in Quad 1 matchups, Iowa State’s physical style should travel well.
Player prop pick: Milan Momcilovic over points – With TCU focusing on slowing Lipsey, Momcilovic should find clean looks from the perimeter and in transition.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Breakdown
TCU sits at 14 and 9 overall and 4 and 6 in conference play, firmly on the tournament bubble. The Horned Frogs grabbed momentum with an 84 to 82 win over Kansas State, rallying from five down in the final minute.
Xavier Edmonds was dominant, posting 26 points on 9 of 10 shooting, going 7 of 10 at the free throw line and pulling down 10 rebounds. He has recorded a double double in five straight games and has become the offensive engine.
TCU is 3 and 6 in Quad 1 games and needs a marquee win. At home, with rest and confidence from their comeback victory, they should bring energy early. The question is whether they can handle Iowa State’s defensive intensity for forty minutes.
Player prop pick: Xavier Edmonds over points – His recent scoring surge and heavy usage suggest he will continue to carry the offense.
Expert Final Score Prediction
Iowa State’s defense and experience give them the edge, but covering 7 on the road in the Big 12 is never simple. TCU’s urgency and Edmonds’ form should keep this competitive.
Final Score: Iowa State 74, TCU 69
Lean: TCU +7.0
Total: Under 147.5
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
