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Michigan State (20-4) vs Wisconsin (17-7)
- When: Feb 13 2026, 8:00 PM
- Where: Kohl Center, Madison, WI, USA
- Where to watch: FOX
(10) Michigan State vs Wisconsin Preview & Prediction
Spread: Michigan State -2.0
Moneyline: Michigan State (-139)
Total: 146.5
Michigan State Spartans Betting Breakdown
Michigan State heads into Madison laying 2 points in what feels like a classic Big Ten grinder. The Spartans just survived Illinois in overtime and showed exactly why they travel well. Down in the second half, they flipped the switch behind Jeremy Fears Jr., who erupted for 26 points and 15 assists. That is not a typo. When he controls tempo, Michigan State controls the game.
Tom Izzo’s group thrives on physical play and rebounding dominance. The Spartans own one of the best rebounding margins in the country and consistently win second chance battles. They average 79.1 points while allowing just 65.6, and that defensive backbone matters in tight road spreads.
Against a Wisconsin team that depends heavily on perimeter rhythm, Michigan State’s length and ability to generate transition points could be the difference. With the line sitting at Spartans minus 2, the number suggests a near coin flip. The edge goes to the more complete defensive unit.
Michigan State Player Prop Pick: Jeremy Fears Jr. Over 19.5 Points – Wisconsin focuses heavily on limiting paint touches, but Fears has shown he can break down defenses late in games. In a high usage spot, his scoring upside climbs in competitive matchups.
Wisconsin Badgers Betting Breakdown
Wisconsin comes home after its own overtime thriller at Illinois, where the Badgers drilled 16 threes and erased a double digit deficit. When they hit double digit triples, they are nearly unbeatable. The issue is consistency.
The Badgers average 83.3 points but give up 75.8, meaning they are comfortable in faster games. At home, they have been strong at 12-2, and their backcourt pairing of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell can light up the scoreboard quickly.
If Wisconsin protects the ball the way it did against Illinois, this becomes a serious test for Michigan State. The total at 146.5 suggests a moderate pace. If the Badgers hit perimeter shots early, the over becomes live.
Wisconsin Player Prop Pick: Nick Boyd Over 19.5 Points – Boyd thrives in high leverage spots and handles scoring duties when games tighten. Against a strong defensive opponent, his volume and confidence keep him aggressive.
Expert Final Score Prediction
Michigan State’s rebounding and late game composure travel. Wisconsin keeps it tight with perimeter shooting, but the Spartans close better.
Final Score: Michigan State 76, Wisconsin 72
Lean: Michigan State -2.0
Total: Over 146.5
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
