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UConn (24-3) vs Villanova (21-5)
- When: Feb 21 2026, 5:30 PM
- Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
- Where to watch: TNT
(5) UConn vs Villanova Preview & Prediction
Spread: UConn -2.5
Moneyline: UConn (-140)
Total: 140.5
Villanova Wildcats: March Mode Activated
Villanova is doing that classic late season thing where everyone shrugs and says, “Oh great, here they come again.” The Wildcats are 21-5 overall and 12-3 in the Big East, riding a six game winning streak and feeling dangerous in Philadelphia. Their latest act? A 92-89 overtime thriller at Xavier where Acaden Lewis dropped 21 points, including five in OT, basically deciding he was done sharing.
Tyler Perkins chipped in 17 points, Duke Brennan posted 10 points and 13 rebounds, and Bryce Lindsay added 15 points with a clutch overtime three that probably made half the arena spill their drinks. Sure, Villanova allowed Xavier to shoot 50.7 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from deep. Minor detail. They also shot just 14 of 22 from the line and got outrebounded. Even smaller detail. The real difference? Ball movement and poise. Twenty four assists to just six turnovers. That is grown up basketball.
They have not lost since a 75-67 overtime defeat at UConn on Jan. 24. Revenge games in college hoops? Oh, they matter. Especially at home.
UConn Huskies: Road Test Trouble
UConn rolls in at 24-3 and 14-2 in conference play, but the vibes are… complicated. The Huskies recently fell 91-84 at home to Creighton despite Braylon Mullins pouring in 25 points. They allowed 49.1 percent shooting and 10 of 21 from three. Head coach Dan Hurley called the defense dreadful. When your own coach says the defense is a joke, that is not exactly comforting if you are laying points on the road.
Solo Ball, who had 24 points in the first meeting against Villanova, managed just eight points on 3-of-10 shooting in the last outing. Alex Karaban, who scored 17 in the previous matchup, was limited to two points on 1-of-6 shooting while battling an injury. This is not peak Huskies basketball right now.
Final Predictions
The market says UConn -2.5 with a total of 140.5. But the hotter team is at home, riding momentum, and motivated after that January loss. UConn’s defense has slipped at the worst possible time, and Villanova’s assist to turnover ratio screams discipline.
Give me the home dog in a mild upset. The Wildcats ride the Philly crowd, hit enough threes, and flip the script.
Final Score: Villanova 73, UConn 70
Lean: Villanova ML (+120)
Total: Over 140.5
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
