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Miami (31-28) at Philadelphia (32-26)
- When: Feb 26 2026, 7:00 PM
- Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- TV: FDSSUN
Miami vs Philadelphia Preview & Prediction
Spread: Philadelphia -2.0
Moneyline: Philadelphia (-135)
Total: 241.0
Miami Heat Betting Preview
If you’re looking to maximize profit, you start with context and Miami is walking into this matchup needing urgency. The Heat sit eighth in the East and can’t afford defensive lapses this late in the season. They just dropped a 128-117 decision to Milwaukee, allowing nearly 50 percent shooting without Giannis on the floor. That’s not championship-level resistance.
Offensively, Miami has firepower. Norman Powell is averaging 22.9 points per game and poured in 26 last time out. Tyler Herro, at 20.9 per night, struggled with 14 points on 5-of-17 shooting. When Herro is inefficient, Miami’s half-court flow stalls. The Heat also shot just 33 percent from three in that loss. In a game with a 241.0 total, perimeter accuracy is everything.
Miami did beat Philadelphia 127-117 earlier this season behind Powell’s 32 and Kel’el Ware’s 20-point, 16-rebound effort. But that was without Joel Embiid. This version of the Sixers is different.
If Miami is going to cash as a +2 underdog, they must defend Maxey with physicality and avoid trading baskets. If this becomes a track meet, it favors Philadelphia’s current rhythm.
Philadelphia 76ers Betting Preview
Philadelphia has been volatile, but right now the arrow points up. After a five-game surge and a cold spell, the Sixers have stacked two impressive road wins, including a 135-114 statement against Indiana.
Tyrese Maxey is playing at a superstar clip, averaging a career-high 29.1 points per game. He has combined for 71 points in the last two victories and just dropped 32 with nine rebounds and eight assists. When Maxey gets downhill early, the Sixers’ offense explodes.
The real X-factor is Joel Embiid’s return. He logged 27 points in 26 minutes against Indiana after missing five games. Even if he is still ramping up, his presence warps defenses and opens the floor for shooters.
Philadelphia laying 2.0 at home reflects respect for their offensive ceiling. With a total at 241.0, oddsmakers expect pace and shot-making. The Sixers have shown they can win in shootouts, especially when Embiid and Maxey are both available.
NBA Prediction and Betting Outlook
Philadelphia’s offense is humming, and Embiid’s return raises their efficiency on both ends. Miami’s defensive inconsistencies and reliance on perimeter shooting make them vulnerable in a high-scoring environment.
Final Score: Philadelphia 125, Miami 119
Lean: Philadelphia -2.0
Total: Over 241.0
If Maxey maintains his current form and Embiid provides interior balance, the Sixers control tempo and cover in a game that pushes beyond the total.
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
