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Texas Tech (21-7) vs Iowa State (24-4)
- When: Feb 28 2026, 4:00 PM
- Where: James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
(16) Texas Tech vs (4) Iowa State Preview & Prediction
Spread: Iowa State -10.5
Moneyline: Iowa State (-525)
Total: 145.0
Alright degenerates, buckle up. This is the Big 12, where nobody gets a night off and everybody thinks they can ruin your parlay.
Iowa State is laying 10.5 at home, total sitting at 145.0. That is not exactly a friendly number for anyone who enjoys comfort. Let’s break this thing down properly.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Underdog With Firepower
Texas Tech comes in 21-7 overall, 11-4 in conference play, and yes, they are doing all this without JT Toppin, who is done for the season with a knee injury. That is like losing your steak and still being expected to win the cook off.
To their credit, they have responded. Christian Anderson has decided that if Toppin is out, he will just become a walking highlight reel. He dropped 21 points and 10 assists, then followed that with 31 points and seven assists. Oh, and he casually grabbed 11 rebounds in the last one because why not.
This team shoots. A lot. Nearly 47 percent of their attempts come from three, and they hit 39.2 percent from deep. When they are hot, they can erase a 10 point deficit faster than you can say bad beat.
The issue? This is their first road game without Toppin. Lubbock energy does not travel in a carry on bag. They will need Anderson and the backcourt crew of Jaylen Petty and Donovan Atwell to play near perfect to stay inside this number.
From a betting perspective, 10.5 is a chunky spread for a team that can bomb away from three.
Iowa State Cyclones: Home Court Dominance
Now we get to the fun part. Iowa State is 24-4, also 11-4 in conference play, and 15-0 at Hilton Coliseum. Fifteen and zero. That building is less welcoming than a sportsbook after you cash too many tickets.
Offensively, they are no slouch. Milan Momcilovic averages 17.4 points per game. Joshua Jefferson adds 16.6 points, 5.2 assists, 7.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals. He is stuffing stat sheets and getting Player of the Year chatter.
The Cyclones score 82.8 points per game and shoot the same 39.2 percent from three as Texas Tech. The difference is defense. Iowa State allows just 64.9 points per game and leads the conference in rebounds allowed. They defend like your life depends on it.
At home, that defense turns up another notch. They pressure, rotate, and make you question every shot.
LVSB Official Prediction
The total at 145.0 feels like a tug of war. Texas Tech wants to let it fly. Iowa State wants to clamp down and grind.
Iowa State at home has been automatic. Fifteen straight wins in Ames is not an accident. But 10.5 against a confident, three point heavy underdog? That is dangerous.
Cyclones win. Red Raiders cover the 10.5. I am leaning under 145.0 because Iowa State’s defense travels absolutely nowhere and clamps down at home. Grab the points and enjoy the sweat.
Final Score: Iowa State 74, Texas Tech 66
Lean: Texas Tech +10.5
Total: Under 145.0
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
