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Purdue (22-6) vs Ohio State (17-11)
- When: Mar 1 2026, 1:30 PM
- Where: Value City Arena, Columbus, OH, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
(8) Purdue vs Ohio State Preview & Prediction
Spread: Purdue -6.5
Moneyline: Purdue (-300)
Total: 150.5
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Breakdown
Purdue enters this matchup at 22-6 overall and 12-5 in Big Ten play, but Thursday’s 76 to 74 home loss to Michigan State complicated the conference race. The Boilermakers are currently sitting fifth, and the difference between fifth and fourth in this league is massive. A top four finish secures a triple bye in the conference tournament, which means fewer games, fresher legs and better positioning for March.
That motivation matters for bettors.
Matt Painter’s team understands what is at stake. To realistically climb back into the top four, Purdue likely needs to win out. That makes this road trip to Columbus far more than a routine conference stop.
Braden Smith continues to be the engine. With 1,004 career assists, he needs just four more to move into fourth place all time in NCAA history. He is not just a distributor. He controls pace, limits mistakes and generates high quality looks late in possessions. When Purdue wins, it is usually because Smith dictates tempo and the Boilermakers execute efficiently in half court sets.
As a 6.5 point favorite with a total of 150.5, Purdue is being priced as the more stable and complete team. They can score in the mid 70s consistently, and their defensive discipline often keeps opponents from pushing games into track meets.
From a trend perspective, Purdue has been reliable against mid tier conference teams, especially when urgency is high.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Breakdown
Ohio State at 17-11 overall and 9-8 in conference play is fighting for survival. A 74 to 57 loss at Iowa marked the first time all season the Buckeyes dropped two straight games. More concerning is their 1 and 10 record against Quad 1 opponents. That résumé weakness looms large.
Bruce Thornton, who averages around 20 points per game, managed only 10 against Iowa and failed to score in the first half. If Ohio State is going to threaten Purdue, Thornton must be aggressive from the opening tip.
Injuries have disrupted rhythm. Center Christoph Tilly missed the Iowa game with an ankle issue, and lineup continuity has been difficult. That lack of stability has translated into inconsistent offensive stretches.
At home, catching 6.5 points offers some value if you believe Thornton rebounds and Ohio State defends with energy. However, their inability to close out elite teams has been a recurring issue.
Prediction and Best Bet
The total at 150.5 suggests a moderately paced game. Purdue will likely aim to control tempo and execute through Smith in the half court. Ohio State will need early shot making to stay within range.
Purdue covers the 6.5 point spread behind experience, ball security and late game execution. Lean slightly toward the over if Ohio State finds rhythm early, but the primary edge is backing the Boilermakers to handle business.
Final Score: Purdue 78, Ohio State 70
Lean: Purdue -6.5
Total: Under 150.5
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
