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Santa Clara (25-7) vs Saint Mary’s (27-4)
- When: Mar 9 2026, 11:30 PM
- Where: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN2
Santa Clara vs (21) Saint Mary’s Preview & Prediction
Spread: Saint Mary’s -4.5
Moneyline: Saint Mary’s (-185)
Total: 149.0
Saint Mary’s Gaels: Relentless Rebounding Machine
Alright folks, welcome to the West Coast Conference semifinals in Las Vegas, where Saint Mary’s shows up every year like that one guy at the blackjack table who somehow always leaves with your money. The Gaels have either won or shared the last four WCC regular season titles, which is impressive until you realize actually winning the tournament has been a bit trickier.
Still, Saint Mary’s rolls into this one at 27 and 4 with an eight game winning streak and plenty of momentum. They just smacked Gonzaga 70 to 59 and earlier demolished Santa Clara 86 to 67. That last meeting featured an absolutely criminal rebounding performance where the Gaels grabbed boards like they were handing out free casino chips, winning the battle 51 to 21.
Mikey Lewis has been on an absolute heater lately. He dropped 21 points against Santa Clara in that beatdown and then went nuclear against Gonzaga with 31 points and seven three pointers. Yes, seven. The kind of shooting that makes sportsbooks sweat and defenders question their career choices.
The Gaels are favored by 4.5 points for a reason. They rebound everything, defend like their rent depends on it, and lately they’re shooting the lights out.
Santa Clara Broncos: March Madness Dreamers
Now let’s talk about Santa Clara, a team that hasn’t sniffed the NCAA Tournament since 1996. Back then Steve Nash was still running the show and people were renting movies at Blockbuster.
But credit where it’s due. Coach Herb Sendek has quietly built a solid squad. The Broncos are sitting at 25 and 7 and just handled Pacific 76 to 68 to reach this semifinal. Allen Graves led the charge with 19 points while the team controlled the game from start to finish.
Forward Elijah Mahi summed up their approach perfectly. One game at a time. Which is a nice calm way of saying “please basketball gods let us beat Saint Mary’s so we can finally get back to March Madness.”
The Broncos did beat Saint Mary’s earlier this season 62 to 54, so they know it can be done. The problem is the last meeting looked like a rebounding clinic hosted by the Gaels.
If Santa Clara wants any chance here, they must rebound like their lives depend on it and avoid letting Mikey Lewis turn into Steph Curry again.
LVSB Betting Prediction
The Bovada oddsmakers have Saint Mary’s favored by 4.5 with the total sitting at 149.0. That line screams competitive game, but the Gaels’ rebounding edge and recent form make them the safer bet.
Santa Clara will scrap, score, and keep things interesting for a while. Eventually though, Saint Mary’s depth and defense should take control.
Final Score: Saint Mary’s 77, Santa Clara 70
Lean: Saint Mary’s -4.5
Total: Under 149.0
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
